Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-3 Nürnberg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 3 Oct 2025

📅03/10/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.27
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
35%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.07
Over 2.5
54%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.6
No
43%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.79
2-3 Goals
38%
1.81
4-5 Goals
24%
3.08
6+ Goals
11%
10.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.4
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
27.0
1/X
7%
13.1
X/1
18%
5.51
X/2
16%
6.02
X/X
11%
5.24
2/1
5%
24.85
2/2
10%
3.9
2/X
8%
13.25
Value flag · 1/2 at 27.0 — our 8% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
40%
+0.3pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.8pp
35%
Away Win
34%
+0.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
44%
+1.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
56%
-1.5pp
57%
BTTS Yes
58%
-1.4pp
43%
BTTS No
42%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortuna Düsseldorf EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Nürnberg EU Bookmakers 38%
+1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -5%
1.40/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/1.42
-12% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -6%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
323 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 76%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.5
22.2 Crosses 15.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortuna Düsseldorf
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Nürnberg
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.02 xG 1.23
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
442 Passes 372
85% Pass Accuracy 82%
29 Box Touches 21
24 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.04.2025 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf 3-3 HT 0-2 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL2
01.12.2024 Nürnberg Nürnberg 2-2 HT 1-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf AL2
03.05.2024 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf 3-1 HT 2-0 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL2
02.12.2023 Nürnberg Nürnberg 0-5 HT 0-3 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf AL2
22.04.2023 Nürnberg Nürnberg 2-0 HT 1-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf AL2
08.02.2023 Nürnberg Nürnberg 1-1 HT 0-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf AFK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortuna Düsseldorf
2-3
AWAY Nürnberg
1.43 xG 2.48
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 18
7 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 2
444 Passes 362
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
31 Box Touches 35
18 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Nürnberg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nürnberg edged past Fortuna Düsseldorf 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 25% / 35%) promised a tight game; Nürnberg found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Fortuna Düsseldorf had 55% of the ball to Nürnberg's 45%, shots finished 12-18, expected goals 1.43 to 2.48.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fortuna Düsseldorf had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.50 for Nürnberg.

What was the final score of Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Nürnberg?

Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-3 Nürnberg in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 03/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Nürnberg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fortuna Düsseldorf win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Fortuna Düsseldorf 40%, draw 25%, Nürnberg 35%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Fortuna Düsseldorf) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fortuna Düsseldorf) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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