Septemvri Sofia 2-2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 3 Oct 2025

📅03/10/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.29
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
46%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.64
Over 2.5
45%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.9
No
51%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
16%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
24%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
27%
+3.3pp
24%
Draw
28%
-4.0pp
46%
Away Win
45%
+0.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
57%
-1.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
43%
+1.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.5pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Septemvri Sofia EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiv Plovdiv EU Bookmakers 49%
-17% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
0.83/1.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/0.98
-12% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -5%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
249 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 216 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Septemvri Sofia
2W-0D-2L
AWAY Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
28.04.2025 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia 2-0 HT 0-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BUL1
16.02.2025 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0-1 HT 0-0 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia BUL1
26.08.2024 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia 2-3 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BUL1
07.04.2023 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2-1 HT 1-0 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Septemvri Sofia
2-2
AWAY Lokomotiv Plovdiv
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Septemvri Sofia and Lokomotiv Plovdiv couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Septemvri Sofia had 48% of the ball to Lokomotiv Plovdiv's 52%, shots finished 10-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Septemvri Sofia and 1.25 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv.

What was the final score of Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?

Septemvri Sofia 2-2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 03/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lokomotiv Plovdiv win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Septemvri Sofia 30%, draw 24%, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 46%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lokomotiv Plovdiv) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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