ES Metlaoui 1-1 Ben Guerdane — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Tunisia - 1st Division, 3 Oct 2025

📅03/10/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.19
Draw
29%
2.83
Away
26%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
73%
1.36
Over 2.5
27%
2.98
Both Teams to Score
Yes
33%
2.51
No
67%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
44%
1.76
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
11%
7.32
6+ Goals
6%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
11%
X/X
16%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
42%
+3.4pp
29%
Draw
32%
-2.7pp
26%
Away Win
26%
-0.7pp
73%
Under 2.5
70%
+2.5pp
27%
Over 2.5
30%
-2.5pp
32%
BTTS Yes
36%
-3.2pp
68%
BTTS No
64%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ES Metlaoui EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Ben Guerdane EU Bookmakers 30%
+12% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -15%
1.16/0.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.58/0.93
+19% / +64% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -40% / +3%
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
271 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ES Metlaoui
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Ben Guerdane
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
50% Ball Possession 50%
6 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
03.03.2025 Ben Guerdane Ben Guerdane 2-2 HT 2-0 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui TUN1
10.11.2024 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui 1-1 HT 1-1 Ben Guerdane Ben Guerdane TUN1
26.05.2024 Ben Guerdane Ben Guerdane 3-0 HT 1-0 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui TUN
03.03.2024 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui 3-1 HT 0-0 Ben Guerdane Ben Guerdane TUN
22.01.2023 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui 2-1 HT 1-0 Ben Guerdane Ben Guerdane TUN1
26.10.2022 Ben Guerdane Ben Guerdane 2-0 HT 1-0 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui TUN1B
POST-MATCH ES Metlaoui vs Ben Guerdane
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ES Metlaoui and Ben Guerdane shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was ES Metlaoui at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (73%) landed while no to both teams scoring (68%) missed.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for ES Metlaoui and 1.67 for Ben Guerdane.

What was the final score of ES Metlaoui vs Ben Guerdane?

ES Metlaoui 1-1 Ben Guerdane in the Tunisia - 1st Division on 03/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ES Metlaoui vs Ben Guerdane?

Before kick-off our model rated a ES Metlaoui win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split ES Metlaoui 45%, draw 29%, Ben Guerdane 26%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (ES Metlaoui), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (ES Metlaoui) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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