Nanjing City 2-1 Guangzhou Evergrande — Result, Statistics & Match Review — China Halk Cumhuriyeti - 1st Division, 3 Nov 2024

📅03/11/2024 · 🕒09:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.08
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
43%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.86
Over 2.5
45%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.73
No
51%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.29
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.58
6+ Goals
10%
14.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.29 — our 30% vs market 24.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
7%
X/2
16%
X/X
17%
2/1
5%
2/2
21%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
29%
-2.0pp
30%
Draw
27%
+2.4pp
43%
Away Win
44%
-0.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
50%
+5.5pp
45%
Over 2.5
50%
-5.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
54%
-4.9pp
51%
BTTS No
46%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nanjing City EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Guangzhou Evergrande EU Bookmakers 48%
+25% / +25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
0.99/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.95/0.86
+66% / +50% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +95% / -33%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
264 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 78%
10.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.7
10.9 Crosses 16.9
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nanjing City
1W-2D-0L
AWAY Guangzhou Evergrande
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.25 xG 1.28
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 8
185 Passes 262
67% Pass Accuracy 76%
17 Box Touches 22
12 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 3
29.06.2024 Guangzhou Evergrande Guangzhou Evergrande 1-1 HT 0-1 Nanjing City Nanjing City ÇİN2
09.09.2023 Guangzhou Evergrande Guangzhou Evergrande 1-1 HT 1-0 Nanjing City Nanjing City ÇİN2
28.05.2023 Nanjing City Nanjing City 3-2 HT 2-1 Guangzhou Evergrande Guangzhou Evergrande ÇİN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nanjing City
2-1
AWAY Guangzhou Evergrande
1.44 xG 0.80
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 2
113 Passes 169
51% Pass Accuracy 58%
23 Box Touches 15
14 Crosses 15
8 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Nanjing City vs Guangzhou Evergrande
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nanjing City nicked a narrow win over Guangzhou Evergrande 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Guangzhou Evergrande at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Nanjing City had 44% of the ball to Guangzhou Evergrande's 56%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 1.44 to 0.80.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Nanjing City had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Nanjing City and 1.33 for Guangzhou Evergrande.

What was the final score of Nanjing City vs Guangzhou Evergrande?

Nanjing City 2-1 Guangzhou Evergrande in the China Halk Cumhuriyeti - 1st Division on 03/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nanjing City vs Guangzhou Evergrande?

Before kick-off our model rated an Guangzhou Evergrande win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Nanjing City 27%, draw 30%, Guangzhou Evergrande 43%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Guangzhou Evergrande) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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