Dundee FC 3-2 Kilmarnock — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 3 Nov 2024

📅03/11/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.53
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
35%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.8
Over 2.5
53%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.75
No
44%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.1
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.78
6+ Goals
10%
16.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.93
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
29.0
1/X
11%
13.4
X/1
16%
5.6
X/2
12%
5.27
X/X
11%
4.46
2/1
8%
30.5
2/2
13%
3.61
2/X
5%
13.35
Value flag · 1/2 at 29.0 — our 10% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
36%
+2.2pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.0pp
35%
Away Win
37%
-2.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
52%
-5.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
48%
+5.0pp
56%
BTTS Yes
53%
+3.1pp
44%
BTTS No
47%
-3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dundee FC EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Kilmarnock EU Bookmakers 40%
-7% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +0%
1.31/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.28
+17% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +2%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
309 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 71%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.3
20.0 Crosses 25.9
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dundee FC
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Kilmarnock
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.17 xG 1.92
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
228 Passes 270
68% Pass Accuracy 71%
22 Box Touches 27
17 Crosses 32
1 Yellow Cards 2
05.10.2024 Dundee FC Dundee FC 2-3 HT 1-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
18.05.2024 Dundee FC Dundee FC 1-1 HT 1-1 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
02.03.2024 Dundee FC Dundee FC 2-2 HT 1-1 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
20.01.2024 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 2-0 HT 2-0 Dundee FC Dundee FC İKK
30.12.2023 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 2-2 HT 0-1 Dundee FC Dundee FC İKP
23.09.2023 Dundee FC Dundee FC 2-2 HT 1-1 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dundee FC
3-2
AWAY Kilmarnock
1.58 xG 1.04
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 1
307 Passes 237
79% Pass Accuracy 73%
34 Box Touches 15
22 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Dundee FC vs Kilmarnock
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dundee FC squeezed past Kilmarnock 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 35%) promised a tight game; Dundee FC found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Dundee FC had 55% of the ball to Kilmarnock's 45%, shots finished 17-15, expected goals 1.58 to 1.04.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kilmarnock led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Dundee FC and 2.00 for Kilmarnock.

What was the final score of Dundee FC vs Kilmarnock?

Dundee FC 3-2 Kilmarnock in the Scotland - Premiership on 03/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dundee FC vs Kilmarnock?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dundee FC win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Dundee FC 38%, draw 27%, Kilmarnock 35%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dundee FC), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Dundee FC) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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