Dundee FC 2-3 Kilmarnock — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.18
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
30%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.86
Over 2.5
52%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.73
No
46%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.26
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
24%
3.61
6+ Goals
12%
14.6
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.61 — our 24% vs market 22.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
3.18
1/2
6%
32.0
1/X
8%
13.55
X/1
9%
4.86
X/2
7%
6.11
X/X
12%
4.7
2/1
8%
26.5
2/2
18%
4.36
2/X
6%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+0.7pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.1pp
30%
Away Win
31%
-0.7pp
48%
Under 2.5
50%
-1.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
50%
+1.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
54%
+0.4pp
46%
BTTS No
46%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dundee FC EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Kilmarnock EU Bookmakers 34%
-8% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +7%
1.25/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.24
-3% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +2%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
242 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 237 · 70%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.3
22.4 Crosses 21.8
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dundee FC
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Kilmarnock
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.31 xG 1.73
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
238 Passes 274
69% Pass Accuracy 69%
22 Box Touches 28
16 Crosses 30
1 Yellow Cards 2
18.05.2024 Dundee FC Dundee FC 1-1 HT 1-1 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
02.03.2024 Dundee FC Dundee FC 2-2 HT 1-1 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
20.01.2024 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 2-0 HT 2-0 Dundee FC Dundee FC İKK
30.12.2023 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 2-2 HT 0-1 Dundee FC Dundee FC İKP
23.09.2023 Dundee FC Dundee FC 2-2 HT 1-1 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
24.05.2021 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 1-2 HT 0-2 Dundee FC Dundee FC İKCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dundee FC
2-3
AWAY Kilmarnock
0.62 xG 2.72
36% Ball Possession 64%
10 Total Shots 25
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 10
158 Passes 350
62% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 27
9 Crosses 44
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Dundee FC vs Kilmarnock
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kilmarnock nicked a narrow win over Dundee FC 3-2 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Dundee FC at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Dundee FC had 36% of the ball to Kilmarnock's 64%, shots finished 10-25, expected goals 0.62 to 2.72 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Kilmarnock's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Dundee FC and 1.67 for Kilmarnock.

What was the final score of Dundee FC vs Kilmarnock?

Dundee FC 2-3 Kilmarnock in the Scotland - Premiership on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dundee FC vs Kilmarnock?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dundee FC win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Dundee FC 43%, draw 27%, Kilmarnock 30%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Dundee FC) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Dundee FC) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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