Hibernian 1-2 Motherwell — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 5 Oct 2024

Hibernian
1-2 HT 0-0
Motherwell
📅05/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✓ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Scotland - Premiership – 2024/2025

Hibernian vs Motherwell Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.76
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
34%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.86
Over 2.5
54%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.81
No
45%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.28
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.59
6+ Goals
11%
14.4
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.59 — our 26% vs market 22.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.37
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.25
X/1
9%
4.1
X/2
12%
8.58
X/X
12%
4.84
2/1
6%
24.0
2/2
15%
6.65
2/X
6%
14.9
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.5 — our 7% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
52%
-12.3pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.5pp
34%
Away Win
22%
+11.8pp
46%
Under 2.5
50%
-3.8pp
54%
Over 2.5
50%
+3.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
51%
+3.5pp
45%
BTTS No
49%
-3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hibernian v Motherwell — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hibernian EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Motherwell EU Bookmakers 26%
-8% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +1%
1.41/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.27
-12% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -5%
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
349 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 222 · 66%
27.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
25.6 Crosses 20.5
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.1

Hibernian vs Motherwell Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hibernian
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Motherwell
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.18 xG 1.23
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
311 Passes 254
73% Pass Accuracy 70%
22 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
15.05.2024 Hibernian Hibernian 3-0 HT 2-0 Motherwell Motherwell İKP
13.04.2024 Motherwell Motherwell 1-1 HT 0-0 Hibernian Hibernian İKP
02.01.2024 Hibernian Hibernian 2-2 HT 1-1 Motherwell Motherwell İKP
13.08.2023 Motherwell Motherwell 2-1 HT 0-0 Hibernian Hibernian İKP
01.04.2023 Hibernian Hibernian 1-3 HT 0-1 Motherwell Motherwell İKP
08.01.2023 Motherwell Motherwell 2-3 HT 0-1 Hibernian Hibernian İKP

Hibernian 1-2 Motherwell — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hibernian
1-2
AWAY Motherwell
1.32 xG 1.23
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 5
301 Passes 201
80% Pass Accuracy 70%
23 Box Touches 13
37 Crosses 25
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Hibernian vs Motherwell
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Motherwell squeezed past Hibernian 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (40% / 26% / 34%) promised a tight game; Motherwell found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Hibernian had 57% of the ball to Motherwell's 43%, shots finished 18-11, expected goals 1.32 to 1.23.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Hibernian and 1.67 for Motherwell.

What was the final score of Hibernian vs Motherwell?

Hibernian 1-2 Motherwell in the Scotland - Premiership on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hibernian vs Motherwell?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hibernian win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Hibernian 40%, draw 26%, Motherwell 34%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Hibernian) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hibernian) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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