Dundee FC 1-1 Kilmarnock — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 18 May 2024

📅18/05/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.12
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
32%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.07
Over 2.5
47%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.6
No
51%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.91
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
21%
3.16
6+ Goals
11%
10.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.91 — our 27% vs market 20.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.05
1/2
6%
30.0
1/X
10%
12.95
X/1
13%
5.02
X/2
9%
6.41
X/X
13%
5.08
2/1
7%
24.45
2/2
17%
4.29
2/X
4%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
43%
-2.9pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.2pp
32%
Away Win
31%
+0.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
44%
+8.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
56%
-8.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.2pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dundee FC EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Kilmarnock EU Bookmakers 34%
-7% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +7%
1.33/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.19
-21% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +3%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
270 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 71%
28.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
22.8 Crosses 21.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dundee FC
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Kilmarnock
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.18 xG 1.93
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
198 Passes 295
63% Pass Accuracy 71%
20 Box Touches 25
15 Crosses 29
1 Yellow Cards 3
02.03.2024 Dundee FC Dundee FC 2-2 HT 1-1 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
20.01.2024 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 2-0 HT 2-0 Dundee FC Dundee FC İKK
30.12.2023 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 2-2 HT 0-1 Dundee FC Dundee FC İKP
23.09.2023 Dundee FC Dundee FC 2-2 HT 1-1 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
24.05.2021 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 1-2 HT 0-2 Dundee FC Dundee FC İKCL
20.05.2021 Dundee FC Dundee FC 2-1 HT 1-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dundee FC
1-1
AWAY Kilmarnock
1.69 xG 1.10
61% Ball Possession 39%
11 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
342 Passes 155
79% Pass Accuracy 58%
26 Box Touches 20
23 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Dundee FC vs Kilmarnock
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dundee FC and Kilmarnock couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Dundee FC at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Dundee FC had 61% of the ball to Kilmarnock's 39%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 1.69 to 1.10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dundee FC had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Dundee FC and 1.67 for Kilmarnock.

What was the final score of Dundee FC vs Kilmarnock?

Dundee FC 1-1 Kilmarnock in the Scotland - Premiership on 18/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dundee FC vs Kilmarnock?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dundee FC win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Dundee FC 41%, draw 28%, Kilmarnock 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Dundee FC), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Dundee FC) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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