UD San Fernando 1-0 Xerez — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 3 Nov 2024

📅03/11/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.33
Draw
29%
2.94
Away
32%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.48
Over 2.5
34%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.13
No
57%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
14%
X/X
9%
2/1
4%
2/2
14%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 66%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
39%
-0.5pp
29%
Draw
30%
-1.4pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+2.0pp
66%
Under 2.5
64%
+2.5pp
34%
Over 2.5
36%
-2.5pp
43%
BTTS Yes
43%
+0.4pp
57%
BTTS No
57%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME UD San Fernando EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Xerez EU Bookmakers 34%
-16% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +22% / +22%
0.81/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.66/0.34
-33% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -35% / +150%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
307 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.5 Yellow Cards 3.5
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME UD San Fernando
1-0
AWAY Xerez
49% Ball Possession 51%
8 Total Shots 5
2 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 5
6 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH UD San Fernando vs Xerez
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

UD San Fernando nicked a narrow win over Xerez 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 29% / 32% — and on the day UD San Fernando made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, UD San Fernando had 49% of the ball to Xerez's 51%, shots finished 8-5.

What was the final score of UD San Fernando vs Xerez?

UD San Fernando 1-0 Xerez in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 03/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for UD San Fernando vs Xerez?

Before kick-off our model rated a UD San Fernando win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split UD San Fernando 39%, draw 29%, Xerez 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (UD San Fernando), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (UD San Fernando) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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