AGF Aarhus 2-1 Lyngby — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - Süperlig, 3 Nov 2024

📅03/11/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.49
Draw
23%
3.94
Away
24%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.95
Over 2.5
49%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.96
No
53%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.54
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.39
6+ Goals
9%
12.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.54 — our 30% vs market 22.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1.81
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
17.5
X/1
25%
3.58
X/2
8%
13.25
X/X
9%
5.65
2/1
7%
24.0
2/2
10%
10.95
2/X
9%
18.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
63%
-9.9pp
23%
Draw
22%
+1.0pp
24%
Away Win
15%
+8.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.0pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
-0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AGF Aarhus EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Lyngby EU Bookmakers 18%
-2% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -17%
1.83/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.60
-6% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / -3%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
280 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 75%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
24.3 Crosses 17.7
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AGF Aarhus
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Lyngby
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
1.26 xG 0.59
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
349 Passes 307
78% Pass Accuracy 74%
24 Box Touches 16
24 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.09.2024 Lyngby Lyngby 0-0 HT 0-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
22.10.2023 Lyngby Lyngby 0-2 HT 0-1 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
27.08.2023 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 1-0 HT 1-0 Lyngby Lyngby DAN
30.10.2022 Lyngby Lyngby 0-1 HT 0-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
15.08.2022 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 1-0 HT 1-0 Lyngby Lyngby DAN
07.02.2021 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 1-0 HT 0-0 Lyngby Lyngby DAN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AGF Aarhus
2-1
AWAY Lyngby
1.31 xG 0.40
62% Ball Possession 38%
18 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
482 Passes 263
84% Pass Accuracy 74%
24 Box Touches 16
28 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH AGF Aarhus vs Lyngby
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AGF Aarhus nicked a narrow win over Lyngby 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had AGF Aarhus as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, AGF Aarhus had 62% of the ball to Lyngby's 38%, shots finished 18-6, expected goals 1.31 to 0.40.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AGF Aarhus had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for AGF Aarhus and 0.00 for Lyngby.

What was the final score of AGF Aarhus vs Lyngby?

AGF Aarhus 2-1 Lyngby in the Denmark - Süperlig on 03/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AGF Aarhus vs Lyngby?

Before kick-off our model rated a AGF Aarhus win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split AGF Aarhus 53%, draw 23%, Lyngby 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AGF Aarhus) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (AGF Aarhus) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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