Harrogate Town 1-0 Wrexham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 3 Nov 2024

📅03/11/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
5.09
Draw
22%
3.8
Away
47%
1.56
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.97
Over 2.5
56%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.88
No
46%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.58
2-3 Goals
36%
1.81
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.35
6+ Goals
14%
12.25
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.35 — our 26% vs market 24.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
9.43
1/2
7%
23.15
1/X
6%
17.15
X/1
11%
11.75
X/2
23%
3.72
X/X
10%
5.48
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
34.5
2/2
17%
1.92
2/X
6%
16.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.5 — our 9% vs market 1.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
17%
+14.0pp
22%
Draw
23%
-1.2pp
47%
Away Win
60%
-12.8pp
44%
Under 2.5
47%
-2.8pp
56%
Over 2.5
53%
+2.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
49%
+4.5pp
46%
BTTS No
51%
-4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Harrogate Town EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Wrexham EU Bookmakers 64%
-31% / -31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -36% / -36%
0.46/3.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.67/0.86
-59% / -41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -68% / +21%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
306 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 391 · 77%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
21.0 Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Harrogate Town
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Wrexham
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.45 xG 1.20
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 7
257 Passes 390
68% Pass Accuracy 75%
12 Box Touches 30
18 Crosses 30
1 Yellow Cards 2
12.03.2024 Wrexham Wrexham 0-0 HT 0-0 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İN2
28.11.2023 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 2-2 HT 1-2 Wrexham Wrexham İN2
06.11.2021 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 2-1 HT 0-1 Wrexham Wrexham FAK
25.01.2020 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 0-2 HT 0-1 Wrexham Wrexham İBSL
08.10.2019 Wrexham Wrexham 1-1 HT 1-0 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İBSL
27.04.2019 Wrexham Wrexham 2-1 HT 1-1 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İBSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Harrogate Town
1-0
AWAY Wrexham
0.43 xG 2.41
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 21
1 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 2
206 Passes 413
63% Pass Accuracy 78%
5 Box Touches 38
11 Crosses 31
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Harrogate Town vs Wrexham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Harrogate Town nicked a narrow win over Wrexham 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Wrexham at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Harrogate Town had 38% of the ball to Wrexham's 62%, shots finished 9-21, expected goals 0.43 to 2.41 — the balance of chances actually favoured Wrexham.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Wrexham led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Harrogate Town and 1.33 for Wrexham.

What was the final score of Harrogate Town vs Wrexham?

Harrogate Town 1-0 Wrexham in the England - FA Cup on 03/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Harrogate Town vs Wrexham?

Before kick-off our model rated an Wrexham win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Harrogate Town 31%, draw 22%, Wrexham 47%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Wrexham) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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