Nantes 1-2 Marsilya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 3 Nov 2024

📅03/11/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.08
Draw
23%
3.28
Away
45%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.9
Over 2.5
55%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.36
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
3.52
6+ Goals
11%
13.85
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.52 — our 25% vs market 23.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.05
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
25.5
1/X
6%
13.25
X/1
11%
7.01
X/2
14%
4.7
X/X
12%
4.58
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
22%
2.86
2/X
5%
12.85
Value flag · 1/2 at 25.5 — our 10% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
29%
+2.4pp
23%
Draw
27%
-4.0pp
45%
Away Win
44%
+1.6pp
45%
Under 2.5
49%
-3.4pp
55%
Over 2.5
51%
+3.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.8pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nantes EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Marsilya EU Bookmakers 48%
-13% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +10%
1.24/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.27
-30% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / +2%
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
279 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 380 · 81%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.6
21.3 Crosses 16.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nantes
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Marsilya
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.03 xG 1.86
37% Ball Possession 63%
8 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
260 Passes 525
79% Pass Accuracy 87%
14 Box Touches 33
17 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.03.2024 Marsilya Marsilya 2-0 HT 1-0 Nantes Nantes FR1
01.09.2023 Nantes Nantes 1-1 HT 1-1 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
01.02.2023 Nantes Nantes 0-2 HT 0-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
20.08.2022 Marsilya Marsilya 2-1 HT 0-0 Nantes Nantes FR1
20.04.2022 Marsilya Marsilya 3-2 HT 1-2 Nantes Nantes FR1
01.12.2021 Nantes Nantes 0-1 HT 0-1 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nantes
1-2
AWAY Marsilya
1.36 xG 1.22
26% Ball Possession 74%
7 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 5
212 Passes 752
75% Pass Accuracy 93%
20 Box Touches 24
8 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Nantes vs Marsilya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Marsilya squeezed past Nantes 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Marsilya as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Nantes had 26% of the ball to Marsilya's 74%, shots finished 7-9, expected goals 1.36 to 1.22.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Marsilya led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Nantes and 1.83 for Marsilya.

What was the final score of Nantes vs Marsilya?

Nantes 1-2 Marsilya in the France - Ligue 1 on 03/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nantes vs Marsilya?

Before kick-off our model rated an Marsilya win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Nantes 31%, draw 23%, Marsilya 45%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Marsilya), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Marsilya) ✓ Over 2.5
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