Marsilya 2-0 Nantes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 10 Mar 2024

Marsilya
2-0 HT 1-0
Nantes
📅10/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✓ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2023/2024

Marsilya vs Nantes Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.49
Draw
22%
3.8
Away
19%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.8
Over 2.5
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.09
No
55%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.05
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.82
6+ Goals
10%
16.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.05 — our 29% vs market 27.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.88
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
18.1
X/1
22%
3.48
X/2
7%
12.55
X/X
11%
5.21
2/1
6%
25.5
2/2
6%
10.9
2/X
6%
19.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
63%
-3.6pp
22%
Draw
23%
-0.6pp
19%
Away Win
15%
+4.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.6pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Marsilya v Nantes — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Marsilya EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Nantes EU Bookmakers 18%
-6% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +2%
2.00/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.80
+1% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +1%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
377 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 76%
27.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.1
20.4 Crosses 15.4
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.3

Marsilya vs Nantes Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Marsilya
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Nantes
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.74 xG 1.02
65% Ball Possession 35%
16 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
536 Passes 238
86% Pass Accuracy 76%
31 Box Touches 11
18 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.09.2023 Nantes Nantes 1-1 HT 1-1 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
01.02.2023 Nantes Nantes 0-2 HT 0-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
20.08.2022 Marsilya Marsilya 2-1 HT 0-0 Nantes Nantes FR1
20.04.2022 Marsilya Marsilya 3-2 HT 1-2 Nantes Nantes FR1
01.12.2021 Nantes Nantes 0-1 HT 0-1 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
20.02.2021 Nantes Nantes 1-1 HT 0-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1

Marsilya 2-0 Nantes — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Marsilya
2-0
AWAY Nantes
1.46 xG 1.07
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 8
396 Passes 325
86% Pass Accuracy 85%
21 Box Touches 28
14 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Marsilya vs Nantes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Marsilya beat Nantes 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Marsilya as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Marsilya had 54% of the ball to Nantes's 46%, shots finished 12-10, expected goals 1.46 to 1.07.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Marsilya had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Marsilya and 0.83 for Nantes.

What was the final score of Marsilya vs Nantes?

Marsilya 2-0 Nantes in the France - Ligue 1 on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Marsilya vs Nantes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Marsilya win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Marsilya 59%, draw 22%, Nantes 19%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Marsilya), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Marsilya) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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