Lille 2-2 Rennes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 10 Mar 2024

Lille
2-2 HT 0-2
Rennes
📅10/03/2024 · 🕒19:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.89
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
24%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.68
Over 2.5
42%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.9
No
59%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.75
2-3 Goals
36%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.24
6+ Goals
8%
20.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.75 — our 35% vs market 30.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.6
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.45
X/1
19%
4.12
X/2
11%
7.78
X/X
15%
4.3
2/1
6%
27.0
2/2
7%
6.33
2/X
9%
15.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
49%
-0.9pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.4pp
24%
Away Win
24%
-0.4pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.2pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.2pp
41%
BTTS Yes
49%
-8.0pp
59%
BTTS No
51%
+8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lille EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Rennes EU Bookmakers 28%
+2% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -9%
1.49/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.48
-10% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -3%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
385 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 76%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
17.8 Crosses 14.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lille
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Rennes
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.47 xG 0.99
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 3
375 Passes 395
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Box Touches 16
9 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.09.2023 Rennes Rennes 2-2 HT 0-1 Lille Lille FR1
04.02.2023 Rennes Rennes 1-3 HT 1-0 Lille Lille FR1
06.11.2022 Lille Lille 1-1 HT 1-0 Rennes Rennes FR1
21.05.2022 Lille Lille 2-2 HT 1-1 Rennes Rennes FR1
01.12.2021 Rennes Rennes 1-2 HT 0-2 Lille Lille FR1
24.01.2021 Rennes Rennes 0-1 HT 0-1 Lille Lille FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lille
2-2
AWAY Rennes
2.35 xG 1.09
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
473 Passes 282
88% Pass Accuracy 79%
27 Box Touches 9
26 Crosses 12
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lille vs Rennes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lille and Rennes couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Lille at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lille had 60% of the ball to Rennes's 40%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 2.35 to 1.09.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lille had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Lille and 1.17 for Rennes.

What was the final score of Lille vs Rennes?

Lille 2-2 Rennes in the France - Ligue 1 on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lille vs Rennes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lille win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Lille 48%, draw 28%, Rennes 24%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lille) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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