PEC Zwolle 1-3 AZ Alkmaar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - KNVB Cup, 3 Dec 2025

📅03/12/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
4.13
Draw
19%
4.08
Away
58%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.23
Over 2.5
57%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.55
No
47%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
11%
1/X
6%
X/1
7%
X/2
17%
X/X
6%
2/1
5%
2/2
30%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
21%
+2.6pp
19%
Draw
21%
-1.9pp
57%
Away Win
58%
-0.6pp
43%
Under 2.5
41%
+1.7pp
57%
Over 2.5
59%
-1.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.3pp
47%
BTTS No
40%
+7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PEC Zwolle EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY AZ Alkmaar EU Bookmakers 62%
-42% / -42% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
1.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.87/1.30
-35% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +53% / +1%
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
268 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 407 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 40.1
Crosses 21.5
Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PEC Zwolle
1W-2D-3L
AWAY AZ Alkmaar
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.15 xG 1.66
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
309 Passes 427
77% Pass Accuracy 82%
16 Box Touches 33
12 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.09.2025 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 2-2 HT 2-1 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
09.02.2025 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 2-0 HT 1-0 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
20.09.2024 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 1-2 HT 0-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
20.01.2024 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 2-2 HT 0-0 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
24.09.2023 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 0-3 HT 0-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
10.04.2022 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 2-1 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PEC Zwolle
1-3
AWAY AZ Alkmaar
1.26 xG 1.16
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 5
270 Passes 379
77% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Box Touches 36
7 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ Alkmaar saw off PEC Zwolle 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had AZ Alkmaar as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, PEC Zwolle had 43% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar's 57%, shots finished 9-13, expected goals 1.26 to 1.16.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for PEC Zwolle and 2.00 for AZ Alkmaar.

What was the final score of PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar?

PEC Zwolle 1-3 AZ Alkmaar in the Netherlands - KNVB Cup on 03/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar?

Before kick-off our model rated an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split PEC Zwolle 23%, draw 19%, AZ Alkmaar 57%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AZ Alkmaar), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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