Penybont 1-0 Connahs Quay — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 4 Jan 2025

📅04/01/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
1.89
Draw
39%
3.35
Away
24%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.74
Over 2.5
52%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.88
No
49%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.73
2-3 Goals
38%
1.71
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
23%
3.83
6+ Goals
12%
17.75
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.83 — our 23% vs market 19.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
13%
X/1
7%
X/2
8%
X/X
20%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
49%
-11.8pp
39%
Draw
27%
+12.1pp
24%
Away Win
24%
-0.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
54%
-6.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
46%
+6.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.7pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Penybont EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Connahs Quay EU Bookmakers 28%
+1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +17%
1.22/0.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.66/0.44
-23% / +56% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -42% / +150%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
282 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Penybont
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Connahs Quay
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
15.09.2024 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 0-1 HT 0-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
13.01.2024 Penybont Penybont 0-1 HT 0-0 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
30.09.2023 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 4-2 HT 2-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
15.04.2023 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 0-0 HT 0-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
11.03.2023 Penybont Penybont 1-1 HT 0-0 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
22.10.2022 Penybont Penybont 0-1 HT 0-0 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
POST-MATCH Penybont vs Connahs Quay
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penybont nicked a narrow win over Connahs Quay 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 39% / 24% — and on the day Penybont made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Connahs Quay led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Penybont and 1.17 for Connahs Quay.

What was the final score of Penybont vs Connahs Quay?

Penybont 1-0 Connahs Quay in the Wales - Premier League on 04/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Penybont vs Connahs Quay?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Penybont 37%, draw 39%, Connahs Quay 24%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Draw) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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