Real Sociedad 1-1 Atletico Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 4 Jan 2026

Real Sociedad
1 - 1 HT 0 - 0
Atletico Madrid
📅04/01/2026 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-3 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2025/2026

Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
3.32
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
51%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under
47%
2.0
Over
53%
1.77
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
56%
1.64
No
44%
2.12
Total Goals
0-1
24%
3.67
2-3
46%
1.81
4-5
24%
3.2
6+
6%
11.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
5.72
1/2 ✗
4%
23.1
1/X
5%
14.1
X/1
10%
7.89
X/2
17%
4.76
X/X
15%
5.15
2/1
2%
35.0
2/2
30%
2.62
2/X
5%
13.15
Value flag · 1/2 at 23.1 — our 4% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.

Real Sociedad v Atletico Madrid — Team-Based Signals

SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME Real Sociedad The Market 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Madrid The Market 52%
Average Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Average
1.33 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 1.58
1.66 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 0.83
Great Attack Strength Weak
Weak Defense Strength Great
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
326 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 451 · 83%
23 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23
19 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2

Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Sociedad
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Atletico Madrid
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.92 xG 1.43
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
472 Passes 367
88% Pass Accuracy 81%
20 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.05.2025 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 4-0 HT 4-0 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad İS1
06.10.2024 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 1-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
25.05.2024 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 0-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
08.10.2023 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 2-1 HT 1-0 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad İS1
03.08.2023 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 0-0 HT 0-0 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad HAZ
28.05.2023 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 2-1 HT 1-0 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad İS1

Real Sociedad 1-1 Atletico Madrid — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Sociedad
1 - 1
AWAY Atletico Madrid
1.73 xG 1.22
45% Ball Possession 55%
18 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 6
343 Passes 430
83% Pass Accuracy 85%
25 Box Touches 26
24 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
REVIEW Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Real Sociedad and Atletico Madrid finished all square at 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

A gentle 51% lean on Atletico Madrid didn't survive contact with the match; margins like that flip all the time. The goals call finished the job: both teams to score (56%) landed.

On the day, Atletico Madrid saw more of the ball, 55% to 45%, shots finished 18-10, expected goals 1.73 to 1.22.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Madrid led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 0.50 a game for Real Sociedad against 1.83 for Atletico Madrid.

Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid Result & Final Score

Real Sociedad 1 - 1 Atletico Madrid in the Spain - Primera Liga on 04/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Real Sociedad 24%, draw 25%, Atletico Madrid 51%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Atletico Madrid), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Madrid) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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