Sestao River 1-2 Amorebieta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 4 Jan 2026

📅04/01/2026 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
21%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.56
Over 2.5
44%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.29
No
51%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
20%
X/2
9%
X/X
8%
2/1
9%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
53%
-0.2pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.1pp
21%
Away Win
19%
+2.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
60%
-4.6pp
44%
Over 2.5
40%
+4.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
40%
+9.7pp
51%
BTTS No
60%
-9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sestao River EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Amorebieta EU Bookmakers 22%
+6% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +16%
1.50/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.00
-6% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +35%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
322 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 234 · 68%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sestao River
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Amorebieta
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 6
2 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 1
22.02.2025 Sestao River Sestao River 1-0 HT 0-0 Amorebieta Amorebieta İS3
30.11.2024 Amorebieta Amorebieta 2-0 HT 1-0 Sestao River Sestao River İS3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sestao River
1-2
AWAY Amorebieta
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sestao River vs Amorebieta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Amorebieta squeezed past Sestao River 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Sestao River at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sestao River had 57% of the ball to Amorebieta's 43%, shots finished 18-5.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Sestao River and 1.00 for Amorebieta.

What was the final score of Sestao River vs Amorebieta?

Sestao River 1-2 Amorebieta in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 04/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sestao River vs Amorebieta?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sestao River win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Sestao River 53%, draw 26%, Amorebieta 21%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sestao River) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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