AEK Atina 4-2 Asteras Tripolis — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Super League, 4 Feb 2024

📅04/02/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.3
Draw
21%
4.95
Away
17%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.18
Over 2.5
49%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.06
No
57%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.24
2-3 Goals
40%
1.86
4-5 Goals
23%
2.98
6+ Goals
9%
9.12
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.24 — our 28% vs market 18.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.51
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
9%
23.0
X/1
19%
3.34
X/2
8%
19.2
X/X
5%
7.4
2/1
12%
23.45
2/2
5%
15.7
2/X
7%
23.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
72%
-10.7pp
21%
Draw
17%
+4.1pp
17%
Away Win
11%
+6.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
42%
+9.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
58%
-9.2pp
43%
BTTS Yes
44%
-1.8pp
57%
BTTS No
56%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AEK Atina EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Asteras Tripolis EU Bookmakers 14%
-2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -1%
2.05/0.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/1.62
+2% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +1%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
394 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 246 · 74%
33.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.3
25.0 Crosses 13.2
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AEK Atina
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Asteras Tripolis
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.42 xG 0.65
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
395 Passes 202
79% Pass Accuracy 64%
28 Box Touches 11
22 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 3
22.10.2023 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis 0-3 HT 0-1 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUN
25.02.2023 AEK Atina AEK Atina 2-0 HT 1-0 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis YUN
06.11.2022 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis 1-1 HT 0-0 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUN
06.03.2022 AEK Atina AEK Atina 2-1 HT 1-0 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis YUN
11.12.2021 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis 0-0 HT 0-0 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUN
12.05.2021 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis 1-1 HT 0-0 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AEK Atina
4-2
AWAY Asteras Tripolis
3.24 xG 1.55
57% Ball Possession 43%
23 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 5
398 Passes 281
86% Pass Accuracy 81%
25 Box Touches 11
25 Crosses 16
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH AEK Atina vs Asteras Tripolis
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AEK Atina saw off Asteras Tripolis 4-2. Half-time: 3-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had AEK Atina as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, AEK Atina had 57% of the ball to Asteras Tripolis's 43%, shots finished 23-8, expected goals 3.24 to 1.55.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AEK Atina had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for AEK Atina and 0.50 for Asteras Tripolis.

What was the final score of AEK Atina vs Asteras Tripolis?

AEK Atina 4-2 Asteras Tripolis in the Greece - Super League on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AEK Atina vs Asteras Tripolis?

Before kick-off our model rated a AEK Atina win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split AEK Atina 62%, draw 21%, Asteras Tripolis 17%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AEK Atina) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (AEK Atina) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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