One Knoxville 2-3 Greenville Triumph — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Open Cup, 4 Apr 2024

📅04/04/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
42%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.59
Over 2.5
37%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.99
No
60%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
3%
1/X
7%
X/1
5%
X/2
10%
X/X
10%
2/1
4%
2/2
29%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
34%
-3.5pp
27%
Draw
30%
-2.2pp
42%
Away Win
36%
+5.7pp
63%
Under 2.5
59%
+4.3pp
37%
Over 2.5
41%
-4.3pp
40%
BTTS Yes
46%
-6.3pp
60%
BTTS No
54%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME One Knoxville EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Greenville Triumph EU Bookmakers 40%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
331 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME One Knoxville
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Greenville Triumph
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.09 xG 0.96
53% Ball Possession 47%
8 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
330 Passes 294
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 11
15 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 4
17.09.2023 One Knoxville One Knoxville 0-1 HT 0-1 Greenville Triumph Greenville Triumph USL1
16.07.2023 Greenville Triumph Greenville Triumph 1-0 HT 1-0 One Knoxville One Knoxville USL1
21.05.2023 Greenville Triumph Greenville Triumph 1-2 HT 1-1 One Knoxville One Knoxville USL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME One Knoxville
2-3
AWAY Greenville Triumph
2.24 xG 2.17
66% Ball Possession 34%
29 Total Shots 15
9 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 2
514 Passes 216
76% Pass Accuracy 61%
25 Box Touches 27
26 Crosses 4
4 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH One Knoxville vs Greenville Triumph
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Greenville Triumph squeezed past One Knoxville 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Greenville Triumph as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, One Knoxville had 66% of the ball to Greenville Triumph's 34%, shots finished 29-15, expected goals 2.24 to 2.17.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Greenville Triumph led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for One Knoxville and 1.00 for Greenville Triumph.

What was the final score of One Knoxville vs Greenville Triumph?

One Knoxville 2-3 Greenville Triumph in the USA - Open Cup on 04/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for One Knoxville vs Greenville Triumph?

Before kick-off our model rated an Greenville Triumph win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split One Knoxville 30%, draw 27%, Greenville Triumph 42%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Greenville Triumph) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Greenville Triumph) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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