Aarau 2-2 Stade Ouchy — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 4 Apr 2025

📅04/04/2025 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.76
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
26%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.18
Over 2.5
47%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.61
No
50%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.14
2-3 Goals
41%
1.85
4-5 Goals
22%
2.87
6+ Goals
10%
8.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.14 — our 27% vs market 18.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
6%
1/X
12%
X/1
17%
X/2
12%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
52%
-5.3pp
26%
Draw
23%
+3.1pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+2.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
42%
+10.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
58%
-10.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.4pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aarau EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Stade Ouchy EU Bookmakers 28%
+0% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -13%
1.96/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/1.76
-10% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +6%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
389 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 75%
29.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6
16.1 Crosses 16.6
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aarau
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Stade Ouchy
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.79 xG 1.27
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
293 Passes 332
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
32 Box Touches 25
11 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
07.02.2025 Stade Ouchy Stade Ouchy 2-4 HT 2-0 Aarau Aarau İSV2
08.12.2024 Aarau Aarau 1-0 HT 1-0 Stade Ouchy Stade Ouchy İSV2
09.08.2024 Stade Ouchy Stade Ouchy 1-1 HT 1-1 Aarau Aarau İSV2
08.04.2023 Stade Ouchy Stade Ouchy 3-4 HT 1-3 Aarau Aarau İSV2
11.03.2023 Aarau Aarau 2-3 HT 0-1 Stade Ouchy Stade Ouchy İSV2
28.10.2022 Stade Ouchy Stade Ouchy 2-1 HT 1-0 Aarau Aarau İSV2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aarau
2-2
AWAY Stade Ouchy
1.20 xG 1.95
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 3
264 Passes 278
72% Pass Accuracy 69%
22 Box Touches 41
11 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Aarau vs Stade Ouchy
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aarau and Stade Ouchy couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Aarau at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Aarau had 48% of the ball to Stade Ouchy's 52%, shots finished 14-17, expected goals 1.20 to 1.95.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aarau had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Aarau and 1.83 for Stade Ouchy.

What was the final score of Aarau vs Stade Ouchy?

Aarau 2-2 Stade Ouchy in the Switzerland Challenge League on 04/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aarau vs Stade Ouchy?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aarau win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Aarau 47%, draw 26%, Stade Ouchy 26%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Aarau) ✗ Under 2.5
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