Heidelberg United 4-1 Green Gully — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 4 Apr 2025

📅04/04/2025 · 🕒11:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.57
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
25%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.23
Over 2.5
52%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.66
No
48%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
9%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
60%
-8.2pp
24%
Draw
21%
+2.9pp
25%
Away Win
19%
+5.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.7pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heidelberg United EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Green Gully EU Bookmakers 22%
-11% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -15%
1.66/1.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.67
-24% / +74% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / +5%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
382 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 240 · 66%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
19.7 Crosses 25.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heidelberg United
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Green Gully
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.97 xG 0.91
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
210 Passes 200
61% Pass Accuracy 64%
12 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.06.2024 Green Gully Green Gully 2-0 HT 0-0 Heidelberg United Heidelberg United AVNPL
01.03.2024 Heidelberg United Heidelberg United 3-0 HT 2-0 Green Gully Green Gully AVNPL
13.08.2023 Green Gully Green Gully 1-2 HT 1-0 Heidelberg United Heidelberg United AVNPL
05.05.2023 Heidelberg United Heidelberg United 1-0 HT 0-0 Green Gully Green Gully AVNPL
31.07.2022 Heidelberg United Heidelberg United 1-2 HT 0-1 Green Gully Green Gully AVNPL
29.04.2022 Green Gully Green Gully 4-0 HT 0-0 Heidelberg United Heidelberg United AVNPL
POST-MATCH Heidelberg United vs Green Gully
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heidelberg United swept aside Green Gully 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Heidelberg United as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Heidelberg United and 1.50 for Green Gully.

What was the final score of Heidelberg United vs Green Gully?

Heidelberg United 4-1 Green Gully in the Australia - National Premier League on 04/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heidelberg United vs Green Gully?

Before kick-off our model rated a Heidelberg United win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Heidelberg United 51%, draw 24%, Green Gully 25%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Heidelberg United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Heidelberg United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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