Le Mans FC 1-1 Aubagne — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - National League 1, 4 Apr 2025

📅04/04/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.49
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
19%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.71
Over 2.5
43%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.19
No
60%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.67
2-3 Goals
42%
1.73
4-5 Goals
19%
4.03
6+ Goals
8%
19.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.67 — our 31% vs market 30.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.89
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
7%
17.85
X/1
21%
3.77
X/2
7%
13.0
X/X
15%
4.95
2/1
7%
27.5
2/2
7%
12.15
2/X
5%
20.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
63%
-8.1pp
26%
Draw
23%
+2.9pp
19%
Away Win
14%
+5.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
55%
+2.7pp
43%
Over 2.5
45%
-2.7pp
40%
BTTS Yes
42%
-1.1pp
60%
BTTS No
58%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Le Mans FC EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Aubagne EU Bookmakers 17%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
2.51/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.51/1.00
+41% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -47% / +60%
61% Ball Possession 39%
13 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
398 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 244 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Le Mans FC
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Aubagne
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 10
1 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 0
08.11.2024 Aubagne Aubagne 1-0 HT 1-0 Le Mans FC Le Mans FC FR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Le Mans FC
1-1
AWAY Aubagne
59% Ball Possession 41%
19 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Le Mans FC vs Aubagne
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Le Mans FC and Aubagne shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Le Mans FC at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. On goals, under 2.5 goals (57%) landed while no to both teams scoring (60%) missed.

On the day, Le Mans FC had 59% of the ball to Aubagne's 41%, shots finished 19-4.

What was the final score of Le Mans FC vs Aubagne?

Le Mans FC 1-1 Aubagne in the France - National League 1 on 04/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Le Mans FC vs Aubagne?

Before kick-off our model rated a Le Mans FC win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Le Mans FC 55%, draw 26%, Aubagne 19%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Le Mans FC), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Le Mans FC) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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