Aubagne 1-0 Le Mans FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - National League 1, 8 Nov 2024

📅08/11/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.94
Draw
23%
3.18
Away
44%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.68
Over 2.5
52%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.85
No
47%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.76
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
4.24
6+ Goals
12%
20.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.78
1/2
6%
29.0
1/X
5%
13.8
X/1
11%
6.29
X/2
13%
4.74
X/X
11%
4.12
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
34.5
2/2
25%
3.21
2/X
7%
13.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.5 — our 8% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
31%
+2.4pp
23%
Draw
28%
-5.2pp
44%
Away Win
41%
+2.9pp
48%
Under 2.5
56%
-7.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
44%
+7.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
50%
+2.7pp
47%
BTTS No
50%
-2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aubagne EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Le Mans FC EU Bookmakers 45%
+39% / +39% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +4%
1.99/0.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.55/1.46
+72% / +75% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / -20%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
292 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.7
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aubagne
1-0
AWAY Le Mans FC
57% Ball Possession 43%
10 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 4
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Aubagne vs Le Mans FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aubagne squeezed past Le Mans FC 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Le Mans FC at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Aubagne had 57% of the ball to Le Mans FC's 43%, shots finished 10-8.

What was the final score of Aubagne vs Le Mans FC?

Aubagne 1-0 Le Mans FC in the France - National League 1 on 08/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aubagne vs Le Mans FC?

Before kick-off our model rated an Le Mans FC win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Aubagne 33%, draw 23%, Le Mans FC 44%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Le Mans FC) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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