Homeboyz vs Mathare United Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Homeboyz v Mathare United — Team-Based Signals
Homeboyz vs Mathare United Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings
1-3
HT 1-2
Homeboyz
KEN2
2-2
HT 0-1
Mathare United
KEN2
Homeboyz 3-0 Mathare United — Actual Match Statistics
Homeboyz swept aside Mathare United 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.
As we said in the preview, our model had Homeboyz as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (55%) landed while under 2.5 goals (63%) missed.
On the day, Homeboyz had 48% of the ball to Mathare United's 52%, shots finished 22-7.
For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Homeboyz and 1.25 for Mathare United.
What was the final score of Homeboyz vs Mathare United?
Homeboyz 3-0 Mathare United in the Kenya - Premier League on 04/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Homeboyz vs Mathare United?
Before kick-off our model rated a Homeboyz win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Homeboyz 48%, draw 32%, Mathare United 19%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Homeboyz), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.