Port Melbourne 3-1 Dandenong City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 4 May 2024

📅04/05/2024 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.19
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
29%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.29
Over 2.5
60%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.49
No
43%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
31%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
7%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
42%
+5.8pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.3pp
29%
Away Win
33%
-4.5pp
40%
Under 2.5
40%
+0.5pp
60%
Over 2.5
60%
-0.5pp
57%
BTTS Yes
63%
-6.1pp
43%
BTTS No
37%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Port Melbourne EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Dandenong City EU Bookmakers 37%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
2.20/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.93/1.42
+29% / +63% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +13%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
303 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 76%
34.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
23.1 Crosses 17.0
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Port Melbourne
1W-2D-0L
AWAY Dandenong City
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.39 xG 0.17
61% Ball Possession 39%
20 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
421 Passes 202
80% Pass Accuracy 64%
28 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 3
16.07.2022 Port Melbourne Port Melbourne 1-1 HT 1-0 Dandenong City Dandenong City AVNPL
16.04.2022 Dandenong City Dandenong City 1-1 HT 1-1 Port Melbourne Port Melbourne AVNPL
21.05.2021 Dandenong City Dandenong City 0-2 HT 0-1 Port Melbourne Port Melbourne AVNPL
POST-MATCH Port Melbourne vs Dandenong City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Port Melbourne beat Dandenong City 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Port Melbourne as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Port Melbourne had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Port Melbourne and 0.67 for Dandenong City.

What was the final score of Port Melbourne vs Dandenong City?

Port Melbourne 3-1 Dandenong City in the Australia - National Premier League on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Port Melbourne vs Dandenong City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Port Melbourne win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Port Melbourne 48%, draw 24%, Dandenong City 29%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Port Melbourne), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Port Melbourne) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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