Cercle Brugge 4-1 Genk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 4 May 2024

📅04/05/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.19
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
37%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.21
Over 2.5
51%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.5
No
48%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.48
2-3 Goals
41%
1.9
4-5 Goals
21%
2.92
6+ Goals
11%
8.48
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.48 — our 27% vs market 17.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.13
1/2
7%
27.5
1/X
5%
12.45
X/1
13%
5.34
X/2
12%
6.36
X/X
11%
5.29
2/1
7%
24.0
2/2
18%
4.0
2/X
9%
12.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-3.5pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.6pp
37%
Away Win
33%
+4.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
62%
-10.9pp
48%
BTTS No
38%
+10.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cercle Brugge EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Genk EU Bookmakers 37%
-12% / -27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +12%
1.18/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.72/1.56
-29% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -7%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
299 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 73%
25.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.0
21.0 Crosses 15.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cercle Brugge
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Genk
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.61 xG 1.34
42% Ball Possession 58%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
179 Passes 294
60% Pass Accuracy 70%
31 Box Touches 26
22 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
13.04.2024 Genk Genk 1-1 HT 1-0 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge BEL
20.01.2024 Genk Genk 1-1 HT 0-1 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge BEL
13.08.2023 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge 0-1 HT 0-0 Genk Genk BEL
17.03.2023 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge 1-1 HT 1-0 Genk Genk BEL
20.08.2022 Genk Genk 2-1 HT 1-0 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge BEL
05.03.2022 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge 2-2 HT 1-0 Genk Genk BEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cercle Brugge
4-1
AWAY Genk
2.43 xG 2.35
36% Ball Possession 64%
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 1
164 Passes 379
58% Pass Accuracy 75%
35 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Cercle Brugge vs Genk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cercle Brugge ran out comfortable winners over Genk 4-1. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (38% / 25% / 37%) promised a tight game; Cercle Brugge found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Cercle Brugge had 36% of the ball to Genk's 64%, shots finished 16-13, expected goals 2.43 to 2.35.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Genk led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Cercle Brugge and 1.33 for Genk.

What was the final score of Cercle Brugge vs Genk?

Cercle Brugge 4-1 Genk in the Belgium - Pro League on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cercle Brugge vs Genk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cercle Brugge win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Cercle Brugge 38%, draw 25%, Genk 37%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cercle Brugge), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Cercle Brugge) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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