Mechelen 2-4 Gent — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 4 May 2024

Mechelen
2-4 HT 2-3
Gent
📅04/05/2024 · 🕒19:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Belgium - Pro League – 2023/2024

Mechelen vs Gent Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.94
Draw
21%
3.72
Away
39%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.74
Over 2.5
53%
1.41
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.39
No
48%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
6.48
2-3 Goals
40%
2.13
4-5 Goals
24%
2.51
6+ Goals
14%
5.27
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
4.43
1/2
7%
20.4
1/X
7%
12.75
X/1
11%
7.58
X/2
11%
5.11
X/X
8%
6.31
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
28.5
2/2
21%
2.58
2/X
7%
12.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 28.5 — our 8% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
30%
+9.2pp
21%
Draw
23%
-2.0pp
39%
Away Win
46%
-7.1pp
47%
Under 2.5
33%
+14.2pp
53%
Over 2.5
67%
-14.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
68%
-15.4pp
48%
BTTS No
32%
+15.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Mechelen v Gent — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mechelen EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Gent EU Bookmakers 50%
+6% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +11%
2.13/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.62/1.55
+32% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -12%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
332 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 78%
27.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.5
17.6 Crosses 14.4
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.6

Mechelen vs Gent Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mechelen
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Gent
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.15 xG 2.16
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
337 Passes 403
77% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 30
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
20.04.2024 Gent Gent 3-1 HT 1-0 Mechelen Mechelen BEL
19.01.2024 Gent Gent 1-2 HT 0-1 Mechelen Mechelen BEL
06.08.2023 Mechelen Mechelen 0-1 HT 0-0 Gent Gent BEL
16.04.2023 Mechelen Mechelen 1-1 HT 1-1 Gent Gent BEL
16.10.2022 Gent Gent 3-0 HT 1-0 Mechelen Mechelen BEL
10.05.2022 Mechelen Mechelen 1-2 HT 0-1 Gent Gent BEL

Mechelen 2-4 Gent — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mechelen
2-4
AWAY Gent
0.78 xG 1.55
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 2
494 Passes 294
86% Pass Accuracy 76%
25 Box Touches 24
33 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Mechelen vs Gent
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gent got the better of Mechelen 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 2-3. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 21% / 39% — and on the day Gent made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Mechelen had 60% of the ball to Gent's 40%, shots finished 16-13, expected goals 0.78 to 1.55.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gent led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Mechelen and 1.83 for Gent.

What was the final score of Mechelen vs Gent?

Mechelen 2-4 Gent in the Belgium - Pro League on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mechelen vs Gent?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mechelen win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Mechelen 39%, draw 21%, Gent 39%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (39/21/39) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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