Jaro 2-1 SalPa Salo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Ykkönen, 4 May 2024

📅04/05/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.49
Draw
27%
4.08
Away
24%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.91
Over 2.5
52%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.96
No
54%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.4
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
3.49
6+ Goals
10%
13.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.4 — our 26% vs market 24.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
7%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
63%
-13.4pp
27%
Draw
21%
+5.6pp
24%
Away Win
16%
+7.7pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.3pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Jaro EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY SalPa Salo EU Bookmakers 19%
-2% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -15%
2.33/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.50
+1% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +42%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
400 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Jaro
3W-0D-1L
AWAY SalPa Salo
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
46% Ball Possession 54%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 3
17.02.2024 Jaro Jaro 3-0 HT 2-0 SalPa Salo SalPa Salo FINYK
23.09.2023 Jaro Jaro 3-1 HT 3-1 SalPa Salo SalPa Salo FINY
26.08.2023 SalPa Salo SalPa Salo 3-0 HT 0-0 Jaro Jaro FİN2
11.06.2023 Jaro Jaro 1-0 HT 1-0 SalPa Salo SalPa Salo FİN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Jaro
2-1
AWAY SalPa Salo
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Jaro vs SalPa Salo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jaro nicked a narrow win over SalPa Salo 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Jaro as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Jaro had 50% of the ball to SalPa Salo's 50%, shots finished 10-11.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Jaro had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Jaro and 1.00 for SalPa Salo.

What was the final score of Jaro vs SalPa Salo?

Jaro 2-1 SalPa Salo in the Finland - Ykkönen on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Jaro vs SalPa Salo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Jaro win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Jaro 49%, draw 27%, SalPa Salo 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Jaro), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Jaro) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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