TPS Turku 2-1 KaPa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Ykkönen, 4 May 2024

📅04/05/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.32
Draw
21%
4.95
Away
17%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.51
Over 2.5
57%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.82
No
53%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
5.23
2-3 Goals
34%
1.98
4-5 Goals
30%
2.71
6+ Goals
12%
6.83
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
24%
X/2
5%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
7%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
72%
-9.4pp
21%
Draw
17%
+4.1pp
16%
Away Win
11%
+5.3pp
43%
Under 2.5
36%
+7.0pp
57%
Over 2.5
64%
-7.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.3pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME TPS Turku EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY KaPa EU Bookmakers 14%
-4% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -17%
2.21/0.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/2.91
-15% / +34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -21%
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
416 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 250 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME TPS Turku
2W-0D-1L
AWAY KaPa
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 3
09.03.2024 TPS Turku TPS Turku 3-2 HT 0-0 KaPa KaPa FINYK
19.08.2023 KaPa KaPa 2-0 HT 1-0 TPS Turku TPS Turku FİN2
08.06.2023 TPS Turku TPS Turku 4-1 HT 1-0 KaPa KaPa FİN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME TPS Turku
2-1
AWAY KaPa
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH TPS Turku vs KaPa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

TPS Turku squeezed past KaPa 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had TPS Turku as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, TPS Turku had 46% of the ball to KaPa's 54%, shots finished 8-5.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, TPS Turku had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for TPS Turku and 1.67 for KaPa.

What was the final score of TPS Turku vs KaPa?

TPS Turku 2-1 KaPa in the Finland - Ykkönen on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for TPS Turku vs KaPa?

Before kick-off our model rated a TPS Turku win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split TPS Turku 62%, draw 21%, KaPa 16%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (TPS Turku), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (TPS Turku) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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