FK Rodina Moskva 1-1 Arsenal Tula — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - FNL, 4 May 2024

📅04/05/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.27
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
32%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.64
Over 2.5
40%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.9
No
57%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
20%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
40%
-1.0pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.1pp
32%
Away Win
31%
+1.2pp
60%
Under 2.5
57%
+3.3pp
40%
Over 2.5
43%
-3.3pp
43%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.4pp
57%
BTTS No
51%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FK Rodina Moskva EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Arsenal Tula EU Bookmakers 34%
-19% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +8%
0.94/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.65/0.51
-20% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -41% / +120%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
296 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FK Rodina Moskva
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Arsenal Tula
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
05.11.2023 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula 1-0 HT 0-0 FK Rodina Moskva FK Rodina Moskva RUS1
19.10.2023 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula 1-2 HT 1-0 FK Rodina Moskva FK Rodina Moskva RUK
12.03.2023 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula 2-3 HT 1-2 FK Rodina Moskva FK Rodina Moskva RUS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FK Rodina Moskva
1-1
AWAY Arsenal Tula
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH FK Rodina Moskva vs Arsenal Tula
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FK Rodina Moskva and Arsenal Tula couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 28% / 32%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, under 2.5 goals (60%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.

On the day, FK Rodina Moskva had 52% of the ball to Arsenal Tula's 48%, shots finished 12-6.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, FK Rodina Moskva had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for FK Rodina Moskva and 1.33 for Arsenal Tula.

What was the final score of FK Rodina Moskva vs Arsenal Tula?

FK Rodina Moskva 1-1 Arsenal Tula in the Russia - FNL on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FK Rodina Moskva vs Arsenal Tula?

Before kick-off our model rated a FK Rodina Moskva win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split FK Rodina Moskva 40%, draw 28%, Arsenal Tula 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (FK Rodina Moskva), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (FK Rodina Moskva) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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