Sevilla 2-2 Leganes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒17:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.64
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
26%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
60%
1.68
Over 2.5
40%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.06
No
60%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.71
2-3 Goals
43%
1.76
4-5 Goals
17%
4.14
6+ Goals
8%
20.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.71 — our 32% vs market 30.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.16
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
8%
15.65
X/1
17%
4.01
X/2
10%
10.45
X/X
10%
4.62
2/1
9%
27.0
2/2
10%
9.24
2/X
9%
17.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
57%
-9.5pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.8pp
26%
Away Win
18%
+7.7pp
60%
Under 2.5
56%
+4.4pp
40%
Over 2.5
44%
-4.4pp
40%
BTTS Yes
44%
-4.7pp
60%
BTTS No
56%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sevilla EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Leganes EU Bookmakers 21%
-1% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +15%
1.66/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.27
-6% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / +36%
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
395 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 74%
27.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.1
27.7 Crosses 14.8
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sevilla
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Leganes
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.94 xG 0.87
61% Ball Possession 39%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
488 Passes 265
81% Pass Accuracy 73%
20 Box Touches 15
21 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
09.11.2024 Leganes Leganes 1-0 HT 0-0 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
16.01.2021 Leganes Leganes 0-1 HT 0-0 Sevilla Sevilla İSPK
30.06.2020 Leganes Leganes 0-3 HT 0-2 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
01.12.2019 Sevilla Sevilla 1-0 HT 0-0 Leganes Leganes İS1
03.05.2019 Sevilla Sevilla 0-3 HT 0-2 Leganes Leganes İS1
23.12.2018 Leganes Leganes 1-1 HT 1-0 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sevilla
2-2
AWAY Leganes
2.73 xG 0.63
57% Ball Possession 43%
25 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 2
320 Passes 226
79% Pass Accuracy 71%
37 Box Touches 8
31 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Sevilla vs Leganes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sevilla and Leganes shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Sevilla at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sevilla had 57% of the ball to Leganes's 43%, shots finished 25-9, expected goals 2.73 to 0.63.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sevilla had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sevilla and 0.83 for Leganes.

What was the final score of Sevilla vs Leganes?

Sevilla 2-2 Leganes in the Spain - Primera Liga on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sevilla vs Leganes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sevilla win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Sevilla 47%, draw 27%, Leganes 26%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sevilla) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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