Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Real Madrid v Celta Vigo — Team-Based Signals
Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-1
HT 0-0
Real Madrid
İS1
2-0
HT 1-0
Celta Vigo
İS1
1-4
HT 1-2
Real Madrid
İS1
Real Madrid 3-2 Celta Vigo — Actual Match Statistics
Real Madrid nicked a narrow win over Celta Vigo 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Real Madrid as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%) came in.
On the day, Real Madrid had 54% of the ball to Celta Vigo's 46%, shots finished 17-14, expected goals 2.16 to 1.85.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Madrid had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Real Madrid and 0.67 for Celta Vigo.
What was the final score of Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo?
Real Madrid 3-2 Celta Vigo in the Spain - Primera Liga on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo?
Before kick-off our model rated a Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Real Madrid 58%, draw 24%, Celta Vigo 18%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Madrid), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.