Real Madrid 3-2 Celta Vigo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home OUR CALL
58%
1.42
Draw
24%
4.62
Away
18%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.96
Over 2.5
58%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.56
No
46%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
22%
6.6
2-3 Goals
36%
2.16
4-5 Goals
26%
2.46
6+ Goals
16%
4.83
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 6.6 — our 22% vs market 10.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.66
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
5%
16.85
X/1
16%
4.27
X/2
7%
14.4
X/X
12%
8.45
2/1
13%
18.05
2/2
6%
10.25
2/X
6%
18.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Real Madrid win — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
66%
-7.8pp
24%
Draw
18%
+5.1pp
18%
Away Win
16%
+2.6pp
42%
Under 2.5
30%
+12.1pp
58%
Over 2.5
70%
-12.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.4pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Madrid EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Celta Vigo EU Bookmakers 19%
+6% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -9%
2.08/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.73
+17% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +52% / -18%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
472 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 82%
33.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
18.3 Crosses 15.4
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Madrid
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Celta Vigo
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.54 xG 1.15
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
596 Passes 386
90% Pass Accuracy 84%
36 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
16.01.2025 Real Madrid Real Madrid 5-2 HT 1-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İSPK
19.10.2024 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 1-2 HT 0-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
10.03.2024 Real Madrid Real Madrid 4-0 HT 1-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
25.08.2023 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 0-1 HT 0-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
22.04.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 2-0 HT 1-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
20.08.2022 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 1-4 HT 1-2 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Madrid
3-2
AWAY Celta Vigo
2.16 xG 1.85
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
559 Passes 457
92% Pass Accuracy 88%
26 Box Touches 25
13 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Madrid nicked a narrow win over Celta Vigo 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Real Madrid as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Real Madrid had 54% of the ball to Celta Vigo's 46%, shots finished 17-14, expected goals 2.16 to 1.85.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Madrid had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Real Madrid and 0.67 for Celta Vigo.

What was the final score of Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo?

Real Madrid 3-2 Celta Vigo in the Spain - Primera Liga on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Real Madrid 58%, draw 24%, Celta Vigo 18%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Madrid), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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