Almeria 5-0 Eldense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.45
Draw
27%
4.19
Away
22%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.21
Over 2.5
51%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.81
No
46%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.29
2-3 Goals
40%
1.88
4-5 Goals
24%
2.9
6+ Goals
10%
8.47
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1.77
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
9%
16.7
X/1
19%
4.04
X/2
9%
13.45
X/X
12%
6.65
2/1 EV+ ✗
16%
21.1
2/2
8%
10.85
2/X
6%
19.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.1 — our 16% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
65%
-13.5pp
27%
Draw
21%
+6.1pp
22%
Away Win
15%
+7.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
51%
+2.4pp
46%
BTTS No
49%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Almeria EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Eldense EU Bookmakers 18%
+8% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +4%
2.04/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.54
+28% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +2%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
334 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 79%
26.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
17.6 Crosses 16.5
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Almeria
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Eldense
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.63 xG 0.83
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
270 Passes 201
79% Pass Accuracy 73%
17 Box Touches 12
16 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 1
08.09.2024 Eldense Eldense 1-0 HT 0-0 Almeria Almeria İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Almeria
5-0
AWAY Eldense
3.45 xG 1.30
53% Ball Possession 47%
24 Total Shots 11
10 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 7
403 Passes 316
87% Pass Accuracy 81%
34 Box Touches 15
10 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Almeria vs Eldense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Almeria ran out comfortable winners over Eldense 5-0. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Almeria as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Almeria had 53% of the ball to Eldense's 47%, shots finished 24-11, expected goals 3.45 to 1.30.

What was the final score of Almeria vs Eldense?

Almeria 5-0 Eldense in the Spain - 2nd Division on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Almeria vs Eldense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Almeria win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Almeria 51%, draw 27%, Eldense 22%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Almeria), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Almeria) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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