Rosario Central 1-0 Independiente — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.0
Draw
30%
2.83
Away
27%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.41
Over 2.5
38%
2.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.33
No
57%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
1.91
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
17%
6.41
6+ Goals
8%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.9
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
9%
15.05
X/1
16%
4.36
X/2
8%
8.04
X/X
14%
3.28
2/1
9%
35.0
2/2
12%
7.42
2/X
7%
16.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-3.0pp
30%
Draw
32%
-1.7pp
26%
Away Win
22%
+4.7pp
62%
Under 2.5
67%
-5.1pp
38%
Over 2.5
33%
+5.1pp
43%
BTTS Yes
39%
+4.3pp
57%
BTTS No
61%
-4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rosario Central EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente EU Bookmakers 25%
+5% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +9%
1.43/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.19
+25% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +15%
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
344 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 73%
19.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
23.2 Crosses 15.9
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rosario Central
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Independiente
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.01 xG 1.41
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
219 Passes 302
69% Pass Accuracy 74%
15 Box Touches 28
19 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 4
17.08.2024 Independiente Independiente 1-0 HT 1-0 Rosario Central Rosario Central ARJ
14.02.2024 Independiente Independiente 1-0 HT 1-0 Rosario Central Rosario Central ARJ
20.09.2023 Rosario Central Rosario Central 1-1 HT 0-1 Independiente Independiente ARJ
13.04.2023 Rosario Central Rosario Central 1-0 HT 1-0 Independiente Independiente ARJ
16.07.2022 Independiente Independiente 0-0 HT 0-0 Rosario Central Rosario Central ARJ
23.04.2022 Rosario Central Rosario Central 3-0 HT 1-0 Independiente Independiente ARJ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rosario Central
1-0
AWAY Independiente
1.90 xG 0.26
41% Ball Possession 59%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 1
1 Corners 5
215 Passes 318
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
13 Box Touches 17
8 Crosses 23
5 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Rosario Central vs Independiente
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rosario Central edged past Independiente 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Rosario Central as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, Rosario Central had 41% of the ball to Independiente's 59%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 1.90 to 0.26 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Rosario Central's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Rosario Central and 0.50 for Independiente.

What was the final score of Rosario Central vs Independiente?

Rosario Central 1-0 Independiente in the Argentina - Premier League on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rosario Central vs Independiente?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rosario Central win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Rosario Central 43%, draw 30%, Independiente 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rosario Central), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Rosario Central) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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