Auxerre 1-2 Le Havre — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.25
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
32%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
56%
2.03
Over
44%
1.76
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.59
No
52%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1
30%
3.67
2-3
39%
1.8
4-5
21%
3.08
6+
10%
10.25
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.67 — our 30% vs market 21.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
15%
X/X
16%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to / . Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Auxerre The Market 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Le Havre The Market 37%
-4% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.19/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/0.95
-28% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / +4%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
383 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 76%
21.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
19.3 Crosses 20.5
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Auxerre
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Le Havre
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.93 xG 1.52
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
447 Passes 298
84% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
01.09.2024 Le Havre Le Havre 3-1 HT 1-1 Auxerre Auxerre FR1
07.05.2022 Le Havre Le Havre 1-2 HT 1-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR2
21.12.2021 Auxerre Auxerre 2-3 HT 1-2 Le Havre Le Havre FR2
05.04.2021 Auxerre Auxerre 1-1 HT 1-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR2
01.12.2020 Le Havre Le Havre 1-1 HT 0-1 Auxerre Auxerre FR2
06.03.2020 Le Havre Le Havre 1-0 HT 0-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Auxerre
1-2
AWAY Le Havre
0.23 xG 1.54
47% Ball Possession 53%
4 Total Shots 11
1 Shots on Target 5
0 Corners 9
311 Passes 361
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
8 Box Touches 19
8 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 1
REVIEW Auxerre vs Le Havre
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Le Havre shaded a tight game against Auxerre 2-1 on the road. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

The model refused to pick a side here (39% / 29% / 32%); Le Havre picked one for it. The one blemish: under 2.5 goals (56%) never looked like landing.

By the numbers, Auxerre had 47% of the ball to Le Havre's 53%, shots finished 4-11, expected goals 0.23 to 1.54 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Le Havre's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Le Havre led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Auxerre and 1.67 for Le Havre.

Auxerre vs Le Havre Result & Final Score

Auxerre 1-2 Le Havre in the France - Ligue 1 on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Auxerre vs Le Havre Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Auxerre win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Auxerre 39%, draw 29%, Le Havre 32%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Auxerre) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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