Brest 1-0 Montpellier — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 4 May 2025

Brest
1-0 HT 1-0
Montpellier
📅04/05/2025 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✓
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Brest vs Montpellier Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
56%
1.37
Draw
23%
4.49
Away
21%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under
46%
2.29
Over
54%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.82
No
53%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 ✓
23%
4.43
2-3
40%
1.9
4-5
26%
2.85
6+
11%
8.06
Value flag · 0-1 at 4.43 — our 23% vs market 17.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1.67
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
6%
17.95
X/1
12%
3.96
X/2
8%
14.85
X/X
10%
7.08
2/1
11%
21.1
2/2
8%
12.2
2/X
7%
20.65
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.

Brest v Montpellier — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brest The Market 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Montpellier The Market 16%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -4%
1.70/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/2.32
-30% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -14%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
426 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 77%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.1
24.7 Crosses 14.2
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.4

Brest vs Montpellier Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brest
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Montpellier
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.29 xG 1.87
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
351 Passes 274
80% Pass Accuracy 75%
19 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.11.2024 Montpellier Montpellier 3-1 HT 2-0 Brest Brest FR1
14.01.2024 Brest Brest 2-0 HT 0-0 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
26.11.2023 Montpellier Montpellier 1-3 HT 0-1 Brest Brest FR1
12.02.2023 Montpellier Montpellier 3-0 HT 2-0 Brest Brest FR1
28.08.2022 Brest Brest 0-7 HT 0-5 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
03.04.2022 Montpellier Montpellier 1-2 HT 0-0 Brest Brest FR1

Brest 1-0 Montpellier — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brest
1-0
AWAY Montpellier
1.10 xG 0.49
64% Ball Possession 36%
16 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 6
560 Passes 306
88% Pass Accuracy 85%
36 Box Touches 12
23 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
REVIEW Brest vs Montpellier
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Brest edged past Montpellier 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Brest as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

The goals picture was genuinely open: 54% for over 2.5, 47% on both teams scoring. If anything the market was more convinced: the over-2.5 price stood at 1.59, roughly 63%.

By the numbers, Brest had 64% of the ball to Montpellier's 36%, shots finished 16-6, expected goals 1.10 to 0.49.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Brest and 2.50 for Montpellier.

Brest vs Montpellier Result & Final Score

Brest 1-0 Montpellier in the France - Ligue 1 on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Brest vs Montpellier Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Brest win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Brest 56%, draw 23%, Montpellier 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Brest), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Brest) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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