Lyon 1-2 Lens — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 4 May 2025

Lyon
1-2 HT 0-1
Lens
📅04/05/2025 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Lyon vs Lens Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.43
Draw
21%
4.49
Away
25%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under
41%
2.63
Over Pick
59%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.57
No
43%
2.24
Total Goals
0-1
21%
5.93
2-3
38%
2.09
4-5
28%
2.53
6+
13%
5.46
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1.72
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
7%
16.5
X/1
17%
4.23
X/2
10%
13.75
X/X
8%
7.9
2/1 ✗
12%
18.65
2/2
9%
9.94
2/X
6%
18.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.65 — our 12% vs market 3.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.

Lyon v Lens — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lyon The Market 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Lens The Market 19%
-5% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +2%
2.09/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.52
+3% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +16%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
439 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 78%
31.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
18.5 Crosses 12.8
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.3

Lyon vs Lens Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lyon
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Lens
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.44 xG 2.02
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
383 Passes 410
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 24
12 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
15.09.2024 Lens Lens 0-0 HT 0-0 Lyon Lyon FR1
03.03.2024 Lyon Lyon 0-3 HT 0-1 Lens Lens FR1
02.12.2023 Lens Lens 3-2 HT 1-1 Lyon Lyon FR1
12.02.2023 Lyon Lyon 2-1 HT 1-1 Lens Lens FR1
02.10.2022 Lens Lens 1-0 HT 0-0 Lyon Lyon FR1
19.02.2022 Lens Lens 1-1 HT 1-1 Lyon Lyon FR1

Lyon 1-2 Lens — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lyon
1-2
AWAY Lens
1.04 xG 0.74
69% Ball Possession 31%
18 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 2
558 Passes 242
88% Pass Accuracy 80%
75 Box Touches 10
33 Crosses 3
2 Yellow Cards 3
REVIEW Lyon vs Lens
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Lens edged past Lyon 2-1 on the road. Half-time: 0-1.

We leaned Lyon at 54% — softly — and the game went the other way. Slim leads do that. For what it's worth, the market was even more convinced — 1.43, about 70% — so the upset beat the price as well as us. Nothing to argue with on goals either — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (57%) came home.

Under the surface, Lyon had 69% of the ball to Lens's 31%, shots finished 18-8, expected goals 1.04 to 0.74.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lens led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Lyon and 1.50 for Lens.

Lyon vs Lens Result & Final Score

Lyon 1-2 Lens in the France - Ligue 1 on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Lyon vs Lens Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Lyon win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Lyon 54%, draw 21%, Lens 25%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lyon) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lyon) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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