Lille 1-1 Marsilya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 4 May 2025

Lille
1-1 HT 0-0
Marsilya
📅04/05/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Lille vs Marsilya Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.25
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
28%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under
51%
1.91
Over
49%
1.84
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
52%
1.64
No
48%
2.12
Total Goals
0-1
26%
3.41
2-3
40%
1.8
4-5
24%
3.36
6+
10%
12.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.36
1/2
6%
30.5
1/X
9%
12.5
X/1
17%
5.47
X/2
8%
6.45
X/X
10%
4.69
2/1 ✗
9%
26.5
2/2
14%
4.36
2/X
8%
12.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.5 — our 9% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.

Lille v Marsilya — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lille The Market 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Marsilya The Market 36%
+8% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -33%
1.45/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.40
+20% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -7%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
311 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 82%
20.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
12.9 Crosses 16.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.0

Lille vs Marsilya Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lille
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Marsilya
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.24 xG 1.29
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
348 Passes 400
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
14.01.2025 Marsilya Marsilya 1-1 HT 0-0 Lille Lille FRK
14.12.2024 Marsilya Marsilya 1-1 HT 1-0 Lille Lille FR1
05.04.2024 Lille Lille 3-1 HT 0-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
04.11.2023 Marsilya Marsilya 0-0 HT 0-0 Lille Lille FR1
20.05.2023 Lille Lille 2-1 HT 0-1 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
10.09.2022 Marsilya Marsilya 2-1 HT 1-1 Lille Lille FR1

Lille 1-1 Marsilya — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lille
1-1
AWAY Marsilya
0.47 xG 1.32
40% Ball Possession 60%
5 Total Shots 13
1 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 5
350 Passes 548
86% Pass Accuracy 91%
5 Box Touches 25
6 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
REVIEW Lille vs Marsilya
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Lille and Marsilya couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

A gentle 45% lean on Lille didn't survive contact with the match; margins like that flip all the time.

Neither goals market gave much away — over 2.5 sat at 49% and both teams to score at 52%. The market went further still — the BTTS-yes price closed at 1.64, about 61%.

By the numbers, Marsilya saw more of the ball, 60% to 40%, shots finished 5-13, expected goals 0.47 to 1.32.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lille had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.33 a game for Lille against 1.00 for Marsilya.

Lille vs Marsilya Result & Final Score

Lille 1-1 Marsilya in the France - Ligue 1 on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Lille vs Marsilya Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Lille win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Lille 45%, draw 27%, Marsilya 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lille) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lille) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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