Marsilya 1-1 Lille — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Cup, 14 Jan 2025

📅14/01/2025 · 🕒23:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.02
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
30%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.8
Over 2.5
52%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.76
No
48%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.01
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
24%
3.65
6+ Goals
11%
15.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.87
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.6
X/1
15%
4.57
X/2
8%
7.09
X/X
9%
4.53
2/1
11%
26.5
2/2
15%
5.32
2/X
11%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-3.0pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.4pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+2.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
52%
-3.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
48%
+3.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.1pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Marsilya EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Lille EU Bookmakers 31%
+20% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -12%
1.09/0.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.63/1.80
-31% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +48% / -32%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
393 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 78%
18.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
10.0 Crosses 16.2
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Marsilya
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Lille
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.32 xG 1.16
56% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
418 Passes 324
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 2
14.12.2024 Marsilya Marsilya 1-1 HT 1-0 Lille Lille FR1
05.04.2024 Lille Lille 3-1 HT 0-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
04.11.2023 Marsilya Marsilya 0-0 HT 0-0 Lille Lille FR1
20.05.2023 Lille Lille 2-1 HT 0-1 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
10.09.2022 Marsilya Marsilya 2-1 HT 1-1 Lille Lille FR1
16.01.2022 Marsilya Marsilya 1-1 HT 0-1 Lille Lille FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Marsilya
1-1
AWAY Lille
1.67 xG 1.21
62% Ball Possession 38%
13 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 3
506 Passes 291
88% Pass Accuracy 81%
36 Box Touches 17
26 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Marsilya vs Lille
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Marsilya and Lille shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Marsilya at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Marsilya had 62% of the ball to Lille's 38%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 1.67 to 1.21.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lille led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Marsilya and 1.33 for Lille.

What was the final score of Marsilya vs Lille?

Marsilya 1-1 Lille in the France - Cup on 14/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Marsilya vs Lille?

Before kick-off our model rated a Marsilya win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Marsilya 43%, draw 27%, Lille 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Marsilya), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Marsilya) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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