Le Mans FC 1-1 Valenciennes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Cup, 14 Jan 2025

📅14/01/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.89
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
29%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.68
Over 2.5
43%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.9
No
54%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.65
2-3 Goals
39%
1.71
4-5 Goals
21%
3.96
6+ Goals
8%
19.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
49%
-7.7pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.2pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+5.3pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.1pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.7pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Le Mans FC EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Valenciennes EU Bookmakers 27%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -23%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
364 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
Crosses 24.0
Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Le Mans FC
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Valenciennes
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.17 xG 1.46
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
366 Passes 256
77% Pass Accuracy 68%
26 Box Touches 13
32 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.12.2024 Le Mans FC Le Mans FC 2-1 HT 0-0 Valenciennes Valenciennes FR3
24.01.2020 Valenciennes Valenciennes 1-0 HT 1-0 Le Mans FC Le Mans FC FR2
09.08.2019 Le Mans FC Le Mans FC 1-2 HT 0-0 Valenciennes Valenciennes FR2
17.04.2010 Valenciennes Valenciennes 0-1 HT 0-0 Le Mans FC Le Mans FC FR1
09.01.2010 Le Mans FC Le Mans FC 1-0 HT 1-0 Valenciennes Valenciennes FRK
12.12.2009 Le Mans FC Le Mans FC 2-1 HT 1-1 Valenciennes Valenciennes FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Le Mans FC
1-1
AWAY Valenciennes
1.22 xG 1.85
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
391 Passes 313
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
23 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Le Mans FC vs Valenciennes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Le Mans FC and Valenciennes shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Le Mans FC at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Le Mans FC had 55% of the ball to Valenciennes's 45%, shots finished 12-7, expected goals 1.22 to 1.85.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Le Mans FC had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Le Mans FC and 0.83 for Valenciennes.

What was the final score of Le Mans FC vs Valenciennes?

Le Mans FC 1-1 Valenciennes in the France - Cup on 14/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Le Mans FC vs Valenciennes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Le Mans FC win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Le Mans FC 41%, draw 29%, Valenciennes 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Le Mans FC), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Le Mans FC) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FRK More France - Cup
14 Jan 2025
22:45 Reims vs Monaco Analysis →
22:45 Dives vs Le Puy Analysis →
22:45 Guingamp vs Sochaux Analysis →
22:45 Bastia vs Nice Analysis →
23:10 Marsilya vs Lille Analysis →