Valour 1-3 Vancouver FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kanada - Premier League, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.05
Draw
32%
3.28
Away
30%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.75
Over 2.5
40%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.86
2-3 Goals
43%
1.74
4-5 Goals
19%
3.77
6+ Goals
8%
16.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.86 — our 30% vs market 28.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
20%
X/2
12%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
45%
-6.7pp
32%
Draw
27%
+4.6pp
30%
Away Win
28%
+2.1pp
60%
Under 2.5
53%
+6.9pp
40%
Over 2.5
47%
-6.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.7pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valour EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Vancouver FC EU Bookmakers 32%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -40% / -40%
1.58/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/2.99
-49% / +78% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +47% / -66%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
331 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 77%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
17.7 Crosses 16.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 5.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valour
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Vancouver FC
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.10 xG 1.02
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
326 Passes 330
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
22 Box Touches 23
19 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.10.2024 Vancouver FC Vancouver FC 1-1 Valour Valour KAPL
25.08.2024 Valour Valour 1-2 HT 0-1 Vancouver FC Vancouver FC KAPL
03.06.2024 Valour Valour 2-0 HT 1-0 Vancouver FC Vancouver FC CAPL
15.04.2024 Vancouver FC Vancouver FC 4-1 HT 1-1 Valour Valour CAPL
21.09.2023 Valour Valour 0-1 HT 0-0 Vancouver FC Vancouver FC CAPL
07.08.2023 Vancouver FC Vancouver FC 0-0 HT 0-0 Valour Valour CAPL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Valour
1-3
AWAY Vancouver FC
0.86 xG 1.54
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
274 Passes 313
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
16 Box Touches 28
28 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Valour vs Vancouver FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vancouver FC beat Valour 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 32% / 30% — and on the day Vancouver FC made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Valour had 48% of the ball to Vancouver FC's 52%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 0.86 to 1.54.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vancouver FC led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Valour and 1.33 for Vancouver FC.

What was the final score of Valour vs Vancouver FC?

Valour 1-3 Vancouver FC in the Kanada - Premier League on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valour vs Vancouver FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Valour win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Valour 38%, draw 32%, Vancouver FC 30%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Valour) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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