Police 1-0 Kariobangi Sharks — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kenya - Premier League, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.82
Draw
32%
3.11
Away
19%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.54
Over 2.5
39%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.44
No
60%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
4%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
51%
-2.1pp
32%
Draw
29%
+3.1pp
19%
Away Win
20%
-1.0pp
61%
Under 2.5
61%
-0.1pp
39%
Over 2.5
39%
+0.1pp
40%
BTTS Yes
37%
+3.2pp
60%
BTTS No
63%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Police EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Kariobangi Sharks EU Bookmakers 22%
-2% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.25/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.25/0.68
-3% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -70% / +81%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
321 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Police
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Kariobangi Sharks
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
54% Ball Possession 45%
8 Total Shots 4
2 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 3
22.11.2024 Kariobangi Sharks Kariobangi Sharks 0-0 HT 0-0 Police Police KEN
23.06.2024 Police Police 2-2 HT 0-2 Kariobangi Sharks Kariobangi Sharks KEN
11.02.2022 Police Police 0-1 Kariobangi Sharks Kariobangi Sharks KEN2
08.12.2021 Kariobangi Sharks Kariobangi Sharks 1-3 HT 1-1 Police Police KEN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Police
1-0
AWAY Kariobangi Sharks
42% Ball Possession 58%
6 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Police vs Kariobangi Sharks
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Police nicked a narrow win over Kariobangi Sharks 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Police as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (60%) came in.

On the day, Police had 42% of the ball to Kariobangi Sharks's 58%, shots finished 6-10.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Police and 1.00 for Kariobangi Sharks.

What was the final score of Police vs Kariobangi Sharks?

Police 1-0 Kariobangi Sharks in the Kenya - Premier League on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Police vs Kariobangi Sharks?

Before kick-off our model rated a Police win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Police 49%, draw 32%, Kariobangi Sharks 19%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Police), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Police) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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