Shabana 0-1 Gor Mahia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kenya - Premier League, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒14:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.29
Draw
32%
2.94
Away
37%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.52
Over 2.5
40%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
2.09
No
48%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
12%
1/X
11%
X/1
10%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
27%
+3.7pp
32%
Draw
30%
+1.9pp
37%
Away Win
42%
-5.6pp
60%
Under 2.5
62%
-1.5pp
40%
Over 2.5
38%
+1.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
44%
+8.5pp
48%
BTTS No
56%
-8.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shabana EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Gor Mahia EU Bookmakers 46%
+44% / +44% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
2.34/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/0.74
+150% / +42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +10%
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
253 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 390 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 0.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shabana
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Gor Mahia
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
44% Ball Possession 56%
5 Total Shots 5
2 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 0
11.12.2024 Gor Mahia Gor Mahia 1-1 HT 0-0 Shabana Shabana KEN
11.05.2024 Gor Mahia Gor Mahia 1-0 HT 1-0 Shabana Shabana KEN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shabana
0-1
AWAY Gor Mahia
54% Ball Possession 46%
7 Total Shots 3
3 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Shabana vs Gor Mahia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gor Mahia edged past Shabana 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (31% / 32% / 37%) promised a tight game; Gor Mahia found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Shabana had 54% of the ball to Gor Mahia's 46%, shots finished 7-3.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Gor Mahia led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Shabana and 1.00 for Gor Mahia.

What was the final score of Shabana vs Gor Mahia?

Shabana 0-1 Gor Mahia in the Kenya - Premier League on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shabana vs Gor Mahia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gor Mahia win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Shabana 31%, draw 32%, Gor Mahia 37%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gor Mahia), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gor Mahia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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