Roma 4-0 Fiorentina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 4 May 2026

📅04/05/2026 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
61%
1.53
Draw
21%
3.8
Away
18%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under
46%
1.91
Over
54%
1.84
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.88
No
47%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1
25%
3.33
2-3
40%
1.76
4-5
24%
3.32
6+
11%
12.4
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.33 — our 25% vs market 23.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.92
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
5%
15.55
X/1
23%
3.95
X/2
7%
11.3
X/X
10%
5.43
2/1
8%
23.1
2/2
6%
9.45
2/X
6%
17.65
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to / . Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Roma The Market 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Fiorentina The Market 20%
Strong Season vs Marketall history · vs bookmaker expectation Average
Great Recent Form vs Marketlatest matches · vs bookmaker expectation Average
1.74 Expected Goals Scoredper match · higher is better 1.17
0.89 Expected Goals Concededper match · lower is better 1.72
Strong Attackvs comparable teams Strong
Great Defensevs comparable teams Average
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
388 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 79%
29.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
19.6 Crosses 15.8
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Roma
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Fiorentina
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.89 xG 1.98
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
366 Passes 388
83% Pass Accuracy 86%
17 Box Touches 21
12 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 3
05.10.2025 Fiorentina Fiorentina 1-2 HT 1-2 Roma Roma İTA
04.05.2025 Roma Roma 1-0 HT 1-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
27.10.2024 Fiorentina Fiorentina 5-1 HT 3-1 Roma Roma İTA
10.03.2024 Fiorentina Fiorentina 2-2 HT 1-0 Roma Roma İTA
10.12.2023 Roma Roma 1-1 HT 1-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
27.05.2023 Fiorentina Fiorentina 2-1 HT 0-1 Roma Roma İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Roma
4-0
AWAY Fiorentina
2.24 xG 0.14
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 4
7 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 5
539 Passes 311
91% Pass Accuracy 83%
26 Box Touches 22
6 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
REVIEW Roma vs Fiorentina
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Roma made light work of Fiorentina 4-0. Half-time: 3-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Roma as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

No strong lean on goals — the model had over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 53%, coin-flips both. At 1.82 (~55%), the BTTS-no price was shorter than our number — the market leaned harder than we did.

By the numbers, Roma had 61% of the ball to Fiorentina's 39%, shots finished 14-4, expected goals 2.24 to 0.14.

The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Roma and 1.83 for Fiorentina.

Roma vs Fiorentina Result & Final Score

Roma 4-0 Fiorentina in the Italy - Serie A on 04/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Roma vs Fiorentina Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Roma win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Roma 61%, draw 21%, Fiorentina 18%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Roma), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Roma) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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