Fiorentina 1-2 Roma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 5 Oct 2025

Fiorentina
1-2 HT 1-2
Roma
📅05/10/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✓
Italy - Serie A – 2025/2026

Fiorentina vs Roma Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.8
Draw
26%
3.04
Away
44%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under
48%
1.67
Over
52%
2.02
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
55%
1.84
No
45%
1.84
Total Goals
0-1
27%
2.67
2-3
39%
1.75
4-5
24%
4.14
6+
10%
20.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.58
1/2 ✗
10%
30.0
1/X
9%
13.35
X/1
11%
6.22
X/2
18%
5.22
X/X
11%
4.05
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
16%
3.49
2/X
6%
13.0
Value flag · 1/2 at 30.0 — our 10% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.

Fiorentina v Roma — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fiorentina The Market 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Roma The Market 43%
Average Season vs Marketall history · vs bookmaker expectation Average
Strong Recent Form vs Marketlatest matches · vs bookmaker expectation Strong
1.39 Expected Goals Scoredper match · higher is better 1.47
1.43 Expected Goals Concededper match · lower is better 0.98
Great Attackvs comparable teams Weak
Weak Defensevs comparable teams Average
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
330 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 80%
20.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
17.7 Crosses 17.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2

Fiorentina vs Roma Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fiorentina
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Roma
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.86 xG 0.82
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
399 Passes 368
87% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
04.05.2025 Roma Roma 1-0 HT 1-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
27.10.2024 Fiorentina Fiorentina 5-1 HT 3-1 Roma Roma İTA
10.03.2024 Fiorentina Fiorentina 2-2 HT 1-0 Roma Roma İTA
10.12.2023 Roma Roma 1-1 HT 1-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
27.05.2023 Fiorentina Fiorentina 2-1 HT 0-1 Roma Roma İTA
15.01.2023 Roma Roma 2-0 HT 1-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA

Fiorentina 1-2 Roma — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fiorentina
1-2
AWAY Roma
1.10 xG 1.42
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
293 Passes 384
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
10 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
REVIEW Fiorentina vs Roma
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Roma came out on the right side of a one-goal game with Fiorentina 2-1 on their travels.

The way our numbers pointed is the way it went: our model had Roma as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. Nothing to argue with on goals either — both teams to score (55%) came home.

Under the surface, Roma saw more of the ball, 55% to 45%, shots finished 11-8, expected goals 1.10 to 1.42.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.67 a game for Fiorentina against 1.33 for Roma.

Fiorentina vs Roma Result & Final Score

Fiorentina 1-2 Roma in the Italy - Serie A on 05/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Fiorentina vs Roma Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated an Roma win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Fiorentina 30%, draw 26%, Roma 44%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Roma), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Roma) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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