Austin 2-0 St. Louis City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 4 May 2026

📅04/05/2026 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.38
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
39%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.1
Over 2.5
51%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.55
No
50%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.93
2-3 Goals
37%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
2.96
6+ Goals
10%
9.28
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.93 — our 30% vs market 19.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
3.52
1/2
9%
26.0
1/X
5%
12.2
X/1
17%
5.81
X/2
8%
6.0
X/X
13%
5.03
2/1
10%
25.0
2/2
23%
3.71
2/X
5%
12.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
38%
-0.4pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.4pp
39%
Away Win
36%
+3.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
60%
-10.0pp
50%
BTTS No
40%
+10.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Austin EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Louis City EU Bookmakers 39%
+5% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.57/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.37
+10% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / +8%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
367 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 80%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.2
21.1 Crosses 17.3
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Austin
1W-1D-4L
AWAY St. Louis City
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.33 xG 1.79
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 7
337 Passes 307
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 28
18 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.10.2025 Austin Austin 1-3 HT 1-2 St. Louis City St. Louis City ABD
30.03.2025 St. Louis City St. Louis City 0-1 HT 0-1 Austin Austin ABD
14.04.2024 St. Louis City St. Louis City 1-0 HT 0-0 Austin Austin ABD
10.03.2024 Austin Austin 2-2 HT 1-0 St. Louis City St. Louis City ABD
21.08.2023 St. Louis City St. Louis City 6-3 HT 2-0 Austin Austin ABD
26.02.2023 Austin Austin 2-3 HT 1-1 St. Louis City St. Louis City ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Austin
2-0
AWAY St. Louis City
1.78 xG 2.19
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
409 Passes 322
87% Pass Accuracy 86%
28 Box Touches 29
16 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Austin vs St. Louis City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Austin beat St. Louis City 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 23% / 39% — and on the day Austin made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Austin had 55% of the ball to St. Louis City's 45%, shots finished 16-15, expected goals 1.78 to 2.19 — the balance of chances actually favoured St. Louis City.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, St. Louis City led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Austin and 2.50 for St. Louis City.

What was the final score of Austin vs St. Louis City?

Austin 2-0 St. Louis City in the USA - Major League on 04/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Austin vs St. Louis City?

Before kick-off our model rated an St. Louis City win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Austin 38%, draw 23%, St. Louis City 39%. The final score 2-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (St. Louis City) ✗ Over 2.5
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