Austin vs St. Louis City Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Austin v St. Louis City — Team-Based Signals
Austin vs St. Louis City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
6-3
HT 2-0
Austin
ABD
2-3
HT 1-1
St. Louis City
ABD
Austin 2-0 St. Louis City — Actual Match Statistics
Austin beat St. Louis City 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 23% / 39% — and on the day Austin made the difference.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
On the day, Austin had 55% of the ball to St. Louis City's 45%, shots finished 16-15, expected goals 1.78 to 2.19 — the balance of chances actually favoured St. Louis City.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, St. Louis City led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Austin and 2.50 for St. Louis City.
What was the final score of Austin vs St. Louis City?
Austin 2-0 St. Louis City in the USA - Major League on 04/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Austin vs St. Louis City?
Before kick-off our model rated an St. Louis City win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Austin 38%, draw 23%, St. Louis City 39%. The final score 2-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.