St. Louis City 1-0 Austin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 14 Apr 2024

📅14/04/2024 · 🕒23:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.86
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
28%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.23
Over 2.5
53%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.55
No
48%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.6
2-3 Goals
39%
1.9
4-5 Goals
25%
2.87
6+ Goals
11%
8.19
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.45
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
12.8
X/1
19%
4.62
X/2
8%
8.21
X/X
11%
5.45
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
21.85
2/2
13%
5.48
2/X
9%
13.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.85 — our 9% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
50%
-3.9pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.4pp
28%
Away Win
25%
+2.5pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.7pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.5pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+8.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Louis City EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Austin EU Bookmakers 29%
-7% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -12%
1.58/1.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.63
+14% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -19%
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
349 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 353 · 80%
25.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
21.1 Crosses 18.5
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Louis City
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Austin
3.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.91 xG 1.97
48% Ball Possession 52%
17 Total Shots 12
9 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 6
273 Passes 317
75% Pass Accuracy 77%
27 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 0
10.03.2024 Austin Austin 2-2 HT 1-0 St. Louis City St. Louis City ABD
21.08.2023 St. Louis City St. Louis City 6-3 HT 2-0 Austin Austin ABD
26.02.2023 Austin Austin 2-3 HT 1-1 St. Louis City St. Louis City ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Louis City
1-0
AWAY Austin
1.52 xG 0.32
38% Ball Possession 62%
11 Total Shots 2
4 Shots on Target 0
5 Corners 6
213 Passes 381
73% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH St. Louis City vs Austin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Louis City edged past Austin 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had St. Louis City as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, St. Louis City had 38% of the ball to Austin's 62%, shots finished 11-2, expected goals 1.52 to 0.32 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold St. Louis City's control.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, St. Louis City had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.67 goals for St. Louis City and 2.33 for Austin.

What was the final score of St. Louis City vs Austin?

St. Louis City 1-0 Austin in the USA - Major League on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Louis City vs Austin?

Before kick-off our model rated a St. Louis City win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split St. Louis City 46%, draw 26%, Austin 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (St. Louis City) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (St. Louis City) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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