Austin 1-3 St. Louis City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 5 Oct 2025

📅05/10/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.89
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
28%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.23
Over 2.5
56%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.55
No
42%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.48
2-3 Goals
36%
1.89
4-5 Goals
27%
2.8
6+ Goals
14%
7.77
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.52
1/2
7%
32.5
1/X
6%
12.8
X/1
17%
4.87
X/2
10%
7.98
X/X
13%
5.69
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
21.1
2/2
11%
5.41
2/X
8%
13.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.1 — our 9% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
49%
-4.0pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.6pp
28%
Away Win
27%
+1.3pp
44%
Under 2.5
41%
+2.6pp
56%
Over 2.5
59%
-2.6pp
58%
BTTS Yes
60%
-2.1pp
42%
BTTS No
40%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Austin EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Louis City EU Bookmakers 30%
-5% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -1%
1.73/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.63
+0% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +21%
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
422 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 78%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
22.9 Crosses 15.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Austin
1W-1D-3L
AWAY St. Louis City
1.60 Avg Goals (FT) 2.40
1.40 xG 1.61
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 7
320 Passes 304
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
21 Box Touches 26
19 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 2
30.03.2025 St. Louis City St. Louis City 0-1 HT 0-1 Austin Austin ABD
14.04.2024 St. Louis City St. Louis City 1-0 HT 0-0 Austin Austin ABD
10.03.2024 Austin Austin 2-2 HT 1-0 St. Louis City St. Louis City ABD
21.08.2023 St. Louis City St. Louis City 6-3 HT 2-0 Austin Austin ABD
26.02.2023 Austin Austin 2-3 HT 1-1 St. Louis City St. Louis City ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Austin
1-3
AWAY St. Louis City
0.98 xG 2.70
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 23
2 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 5
423 Passes 321
86% Pass Accuracy 84%
22 Box Touches 35
15 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Austin vs St. Louis City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Louis City got the better of Austin 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was Austin at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, Austin had 56% of the ball to St. Louis City's 44%, shots finished 15-23, expected goals 0.98 to 2.70.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, St. Louis City led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.60 goals for Austin and 2.40 for St. Louis City.

What was the final score of Austin vs St. Louis City?

Austin 1-3 St. Louis City in the USA - Major League on 05/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Austin vs St. Louis City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Austin win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Austin 45%, draw 27%, St. Louis City 28%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Austin) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Austin) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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