Orlando City 1-1 Columbus Crew — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 5 Oct 2025

📅05/10/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.86
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
28%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.51
Over 2.5
57%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.46
No
39%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.48
2-3 Goals
37%
2.02
4-5 Goals
27%
2.57
6+ Goals
14%
5.92
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.43
1/2
5%
30.0
1/X
5%
12.85
X/1
21%
4.95
X/2
10%
8.25
X/X
12%
6.33
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
19.65
2/2
13%
5.29
2/X
7%
13.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.65 — our 9% vs market 2.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
50%
-1.8pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.0pp
28%
Away Win
27%
+1.8pp
43%
Under 2.5
36%
+6.5pp
57%
Over 2.5
64%
-6.5pp
61%
BTTS Yes
64%
-3.8pp
39%
BTTS No
36%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Orlando City EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Columbus Crew EU Bookmakers 30%
-6% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +6%
1.64/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.51
+1% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -4%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
375 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 405 · 84%
26.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.4
19.7 Crosses 15.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Orlando City
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Columbus Crew
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.75 xG 2.71
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
335 Passes 492
82% Pass Accuracy 88%
21 Box Touches 31
14 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.07.2025 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 1-3 HT 0-0 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
22.09.2024 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 4-3 HT 1-0 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
26.05.2024 Orlando City Orlando City 0-2 HT 0-1 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew ABD
26.11.2023 Orlando City Orlando City 0-2 HT 0-0 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew ABD
17.09.2023 Orlando City Orlando City 4-3 HT 0-1 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew ABD
14.05.2023 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 2-2 HT 2-0 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Orlando City
1-1
AWAY Columbus Crew
1.01 xG 3.21
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 21
4 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 7
310 Passes 502
85% Pass Accuracy 92%
22 Box Touches 35
13 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Orlando City vs Columbus Crew
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Orlando City and Columbus Crew couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Orlando City at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (61%) landed while over 2.5 goals (57%) missed.

On the day, Orlando City had 40% of the ball to Columbus Crew's 60%, shots finished 10-21, expected goals 1.01 to 3.21.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Columbus Crew led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Orlando City and 2.33 for Columbus Crew.

What was the final score of Orlando City vs Columbus Crew?

Orlando City 1-1 Columbus Crew in the USA - Major League on 05/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Orlando City vs Columbus Crew?

Before kick-off our model rated a Orlando City win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Orlando City 48%, draw 24%, Columbus Crew 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Orlando City), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Orlando City) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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